It is the final weekend of the NFL regular season and Neil Monnery gives you his thoughts on the two live games on Sky this Sunday...
"Two things though before you take out a second mortgage and lump it all on the Jets. Firstly they are still the Jets. If they can find a way to screw up it up, then by jove will they find a way, that it what they do. Secondly the Bills are coached by Rex Ryan."
New York Jets @ Buffalo Bills
Start-time: Sunday 18:00
TV: Live on Sky Sports 2
What a difference a day makes...24 little hours...no, wait. I mean what a difference a week makes. This time last week I was sitting here predicting the Jets would beat the Pats but it wouldn't matter. Well I was right that they would win but dead wrong that it wouldn't matter. Thanks to Pittsburgh's embarrassing loss to the Ravens, the Jets hold their future in their own hands.
It is week 17 so we all know about the two teams, so I'm not going to go into too much detail about either match-up. What I will say is if you look strictly at the numbers then the Jets are rightly the favourites. They don't do anything particularly well (except their WR duo) but they don't do anything exceptionally poorly either. They have everything to play for and momentum on their side.
Two things though before you take out a second mortgage and lump it all on the Jets. Firstly they are still the Jets. If they can find a way to screw up it up, then by jove will they find a way, that it what they do. Secondly the Bills are coached by Rex Ryan. The very same Rex Ryan who the Jets ditched a year ago after six years in New York. Oh will he want to beat them and stop them from playing again this season. He will have his team as pumped as you can get for, what will for them, be a meaningless game
Tyrod Taylor had performed well for them this season. A lot of pundit rave about his deep ball. He does have Sammy Watkins to throw the ball down-field to and that is an asset not many QBs have at their disposal. All logic though says the Jets pull this one out but I'm not a Vulcan and sometimes I just go with a gut feel and today is one of those days.
I'll rolling with a Bills straight up bet at 2.245/4 on the Exchange. Over on the Sportsbook I think this will surprise in terms of points and go over the extended spread of 45.5 points at 27/20. First TD wise I try to pick one player from each team for a one point back and this week is no different, Sammy Watkins at 8/1 and Kenbrell Thompkins at 16/1 are my two plays.
2pt Back Buffalo to win straight up at 2.245/4 on the Exchange
3pt Back over 45.5 total points at 27/20 on the Sportsbook
1pt Back Sammy Watkins to score the first touchdown at 8/1 on the Sportsbook
1pt Back Kenbrell Thompkins to score the first touchdown at 16/1 on the Sportsbook
Oaklands Raiders @ Kansas City Chiefs
Start-time: Sunday, 21:25
TV: Live on Sky Sports 2
I'm meant to write 400 odd words on this game but it is tough when you know the Chiefs are going to win, I know the Chiefs are going to win, Vegas knows the Chiefs are going to win and Betfair know the Chiefs are going to win. They've won nine straight, Oakland aren't that good and have nothing to play for. So we aren't even going to play that market for betting tips, we'll play other markets.
Also what on Earth are Sky doing picking this game? Seattle @ Arizona is a far more interesting contest. San Diego @ Denver is slightly better and heck even Tampa Bay @ Carolina would get the nod. No-one really cares about this game. It doesn't effect whether any other team gets in as they are already in (but can still win the AFC West) but to do that Denver have to lose, so why not show them instead?
I just don't get it. So I'm not going to waste your time or indeed the editors time here. Lets get straight on with the bets.
I expect this game to be relatively low scoring and close. Three straight weeks we've seen games involving the Chiefs not clear 36.5 points, so the extended spread of under 40.5 is a good value play. The Chiefs aren't an explosive offense and whilst the Raiders can be, the Chiefs D is way undervalued with the likes of Justin Houston and Tamba Hali being monsters along that D-line. First TD scorer gets two plays and Alex Smith has finally started throwing the odd deep ball so Jeremy Maclin at 8/1 along with the great young player Amari Cooper at 10/1 is where I'm going.
2pt Back under 40.5 points on the extended spread at 27/20 on the Sportsbook
1pt Back Jeremy Maclin to score the first TD at 8/1 on the Sportsbook
1pt Back Amari Cooper to score the first TD at 10/1 on the Sportsbook
Neil Monnery NFL P/L 2015 Season
Staked - 190pts
Returned - 247.92pts
P&L - +57.92pts