NFL Betting: Take the slightly less average Jets to beat the very average Buffalo

Ryan Fitpatrick is good enough to lead the Jets to a win in Buffalo tonight
Ryan Fitpatrick is good enough to lead the Jets to a win in Buffalo tonight

The Jets at the Bills may not be the most eye-catching NFL fixture but there are usually betting opportunities to be found, and Neil Monnery has hopefully done just that...

"I think I'm slightly leaning towards the Jets due to their offensive weapons and I like Ryan Fitzpatrick. He's not a great QB (not by a long shot) but he's good enough to lead New York's AFC team to victories against teams that aren't very good."

New York Jets @ Buffalo Bills
Start-time: Friday 16 September, 01:25 BST
TV: Live on Sky Sports
 


Overview


First things first, when I agreed to cover the Thursday night package this season I didn't expect the week after the opener would be this garbage. I know not to expect too many A-grade match-ups in this column but the Jets @ Bills? Sheesh.

At the time of writing though both teams are trading at 1.991/1 on the Exchange so at least we should get a competitive game.

The Jets are coming off a home loss to the second-tier Bengals. Everyone knows who Cincinnati are and these are the teams the men in green have to beat to establish themselves below the cream of the AFC crop. I was impressed to some degree with their running game on Sunday, Matt Forde was only four yards short of three-figures and Bilal Powell is a good change-up back. Their receiving corps is more than solid with the likes of Eric Decker and Brandon Marshall but it was Quincy Enunwa who got the most receptions on Sunday along with one for a score.

Over in Buffalo the Bills started with a 13-7 defeat to the Ravens who were throwing out a QB in his first competitive action since tearing an ACL and MCL last season. The one silver lining is that they were able to sack Joe Flacco four times, which shows they have a decent enough pass rush.

On offense they have Reggie Bush who was once quite a decent player - but hands up if you have a good enough memory to remember those days, it seems so long ago. On Sunday he rushed three times for a grand total of -4 yards. If you are a fantasy manager and for some inexplicable reason have the former USC Trojan on your active roster, now might be a time to test out the 'drop' button on your browser, the one next to his name.

I think both teams are 5-7 wins outfits and this game doesn't excite me to the point where I'm lining up the caffeinated products for the late kick-off. Nevertheless, there are a few bets that interest me, so without further ado...


First Touchdown Market


Last year I made most of my profits betting small stakes on this market. I like to back one player from each team for a point and I'll continue that this time around. As hinted at earlier, Jets WR Quincy Enunwa had a sneaky good opening game and is 12/1 to get the first TD of the match on the Sportsbook whereas Decker and Marshall are 6/1 and 7/1 respectively. That is value right there. Over on the Buffalo side of the ball I'll go with Charles Clay at the 12/1 price. He is listed as limited, however, so wait to see if he starts before making this play.


Over/Under Market


The over/under line has been set at 40.5pts and that looks about right to me. I got burned a couple of times on opening weekend by taking the extended points markets with a garbage time TD taking me down on the unders in Tennessee and Jacksonville not being able to get in with four downs in the red zone late in their thrilling game with Green Bay. My instincts are that unders is the right move here but I'm wary of late scores (or not) going against me so it's a no bet here.


The Spread


No point in this market really as the Jets are only +0.5.


Straight Up Pick


Both teams are distinctly average but the Jets are less average than Buffalo. The Bills won both matches last year 22-17 and I see a similar one score game this time around. Also remember the revenge factor, the second of those two 22-17 defeats meant the Jets lost out on the playoffs. I'm leaning towards the Jets due to their offensive weapons and I am a a fan of Ryan Fitzpatrick. He's not a great QB (not by a long shot) but he's certainly good enough to lead New York's AFC team to victories against teams like Buffalo.


Recommend Bets
2pt Back the NY Jets to win at 1.991/1 on the Exchange
1pt Back Quincy Enunwa to score the first TD at 12/1 in the First Touchdown scorer market on the Sportsbook
1pt Back Charles Clay (if he starts) to score the first TD at 12/1 in the First Touchdown scorer market on the Sportsbook

Neil Monnery NFL P/L

2015:

Staked - 211pts
Returned - 277.44pts
P&L - +66.44pts

2016:

Staked - 9pts
Returned - 2.52pts
P&L - -6.48pts

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