Indianapolis Colts @ New England Patriots: Luck to shine again?

Luca Bercelli
18 November 2012

Will this be Luck's toughest test yet?

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Luca Bercelli reckons the Colts QB is the real deal. So how will he fare up against one of the game's legends when Indianapolis go to Foxboro on Sunday?

Recommended Bets
Back Indianapolis Colts (+9.5 pts) @ 1.910/11
Back Indianapolis Colts to win @ 4.84/1

The Colts are emerging as the story of the NFL season so far. Not only has their head coach Chuck Pagano provided an inspirational focal point as he battles cancer, but rookie quarterback and first overall pick in the draft Andrew Luck has galvanised what many commentators agreed pre-season was a mediocre 'work in progress' roster. The fact that his team have become contenders at 6-3 is remarkable, but make no mistake it's Luck who is 99% responsible for the upturn in fortunes on the field (remember this team finished 2-14 last year).

He is not only an accurate passer and intelligent analyser of defences, but he can rush (two TDs last week) and even tackle if needs be. There are certain QBs who will go their whole careers without making a tackle like the one he made on Dawan Landry v the Jags last week. And all that after taking a monstrous helmet-to-helmet whack early doors. Yep, he's the real deal alright.

It'll be fascinating to compare the youngster to future Hall-of-Famer Tom Brady. He's got a long way to go to be mentioned in the same breath but barring injury most experts fully expect that one day he will. New England are the thinking man's football team and they have traditionally eaten rookie quarterbacks for breakfast, bamboozling them with defensive looks that don't crop up in any pre-game analysis. The last three to make the trip to Foxboro have returned home with zero wins, three touchdown passes and nine interceptions.

That is a dismal record but one that Andrew Luck has a realistic shot at redressing, if only slightly. After all, the 2012 version of the Patriots has been struggling for consistency. Most punter's pre-season lock for the AFC East still hold that position; but only due to the ineptitude of their divisional opponents rather than any great play on their part. They have been worryingly pushed by teams such as the woeful Jets (29-26) and even beaten by the mediocre Cardinals; but it's an easy schedule that has facilitated their maintenance of the number one spot rather than scintillating football. They've had a big problem defending the pass all year (currently ranking 29th in passing defence), and that is a situation I'm hoping the kid can exploit, especially with wily veteran Reggie Wayne at his disposal.

The main bet has to be Indy with the points (+9.5), but the outright win is also worth a sniff @ 4.84/1. Total points should be high but the line has been drawn at 53.5 pts and that's just a tad too punchy for me so it's no bet on that front.