Colts @ Patriots: Brady's boys to slip-up in wet-weather showdown with Indianapolis

Neil Harvey
11 January 2014

Donald is no duck. You'd be quackers not to back back him to have a big game

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Persistent rain is expected in Boston for this AFC Divisional contest, and it's the Colts who are likely to cope the better according to Neil Harvey, who's highlighted a magnificent seven bets that offer the greatest value...

"Donald Brown is a safe pair of hands and Colts Head Coach Chuck Pagano will trust him to carry the ball at crucial times. Given the weather, expect to see Brown handed more carries than at any point this season. And as he’s been lightly used though the regular season, he should be fresh and ready to play a pivotal role in this contest. I truly believe the price on Brown rushing for more than 65 yards is the betting opportunity of the year. Jump all over it."

Back Donald Brown rushing yards to be over 65.5 @ 1.9110/11 or better

Indianapolis Colts @ New England Patriots
Sunday, 01:15
Live on Sky Sports 3

The second of the NFL divisional play-off games sees 11-5 Indianapolis travel to Boston to face the 12-4 New England Patriots in a contest where weather could play a crucial factor, with rain forecast throughout the day. And unlike snow, which statistically has been shown to have no major effect upon NFL games, the presence of rain is a real game-changer. Quarterbacks struggle to grip the ball in the rain, and receivers struggle to make catches, which forces teams to rely much more on their running games.

So who stands to benefit the most from this? Well, according to the stats there's little to separate the Colts and Patriots in terms of their passing offense and passing defense during the regular season. That though, doesn't take into account Tom Brady's huge advantage over Indy's Andrew Luck when it comes to big-game experience. Brady has three Superbowl rings to his name. That's three more than Andrew Luck. And while Luck is very talented, he's still only in his second NFL season, whereas Brady is the proven, seasoned, superstar of the NFL. Just watch the climax to the Patriot's Week Six win over New Orleans if you want to understand the importance of having someone like Brady, who can perform under the greatest pressure.

So that said, it looks like it's New England who'll be cursing their own weather the most. Brady is the home side's ace up the sleeve, but his powers will be significantly reduced if this turns into a mud-bowl. Instead, both teams will turn to their running backs to, literally, carry their attacks. And this is where things get really interesting, and where I think we can really steal a march on our betting opposition.

You see according to the official NFL stats, New England are ranked the ninth best team in the league in terms of running offense, with Indianapolis way down in 20th. But all is not what it seems. Because the Patriots don't actually carry the ball any further on average yards per rush. And they don't have more long-distance rushes than the Colts, with New England's record of 12-2, for 20 yard rushes and 40 yard rushes, almost identical to the Colts stats of 11-2. Indeed, the only reason New England are rated more highly, is because their run-attack scored a greater number of points, a fact which can be put down to New England's tendency to run the ball more often than the Colts when near the endzone.

In fact, I'd argue that it's Indianapolis who actually have the edge in the running game. Because whereas the Colts only fumbled the ball three times during the regular season, the Patriots coughed up possession a whopping ten times. It was even such a big problem for Patriots Head Coach Bill Belichick, that he cast Steven Ridley into the RB wilderness for several weeks for repeatedly spilling the ball. Going into this game, we amazingly find LeGarrette Blunt leading New England's running attack. Blunt is a big bruiser of a runner, but he was third/fourth choice for most of this season and has just one hundred-yard game to his name. So frankly, it's amazing to think he's now playing such a crucial role in the postseason.

Indianapolis meanwhile, will call upon Donald Brown to lead their running game. Brown has found himself elevated to the position of lead runner, by the failure-to-settle of mid-season trade, Trent Richardson. And while he might not be well-known, he has been effective, averaging more than five yards per rush, scoring six touchdowns and most importantly, not giving up any fumbles along the way. Donald Brown is a safe pair of hands and Colts Head Coach Chuck Pagano will trust him to carry the ball at crucial times. Given the weather, expect to see Brown handed more carries than at any point this season. And as he's been lightly used though the regular season, he should be fresh and ready to play a pivotal role in this contest. I truly believe the price on Brown rushing for more than 65 yards is the betting opportunity of the year. Jump all over it.

Given that New England are 8-0 at home this season, it takes a brave man to oppose them. But at 5-3 on the road, Indianapolis are no stranger to winning away from home, and quite frankly they scream value. The Colts also look likely to give up fewer turnovers, which would prove decisive in a close contest. So I suggest taking the big price on the Colts winning outright, and cover yourself by backing them with a healthy head-start on the handicap.

Recommended Bets

Back Indianapolis (+7) to win @ 2.01/1
Back Indianapolis to win outright @ 3.613/5
Back Donald Brown rushing yards to be over 65.5 @ 1.9110/11 or better
Back Donald Brown to score anytime touchdown @ 2.01/1 or better
Back total points under 51.5 @ 1.910/11
Back first touchdown to be running TD @ 2.01/1 or better
Back Tom Brady passing yards to be under 280.5 @ 1.9110/11 or better