Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans: Deshaun Watson will bounce back for the Texans

Dave Gray
20 November 2019

DeAndre Hopkins is one of the leasing pass catchers in the league

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Dave Gray believes the Texans will take a huge step towards the AFC South title with victory over the Colts...

"10 of the past 12 meetings between the sides have been decided by a score or less and this one looks like it could head the same way."

Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans
Friday, 01:20 GMT
Live on Sky Sports Action and Main Event

An AFC South decider?

In perhaps the most important Thursday Night Football match so far this season, the Colts head to the Texans in what could well end up as a decider in the AFC South. Both teams sit at 6-4 - one game ahead of the Titans - and with just six games to go, a win here, and perhaps the tiebreaker that goes with it could be vital come January. While the loser of this one is still in decent shape to take a wildcard spot and even still win the division, it would be a huge blow.

Mack a huge loss

There is some good news on the injury front for the Colts. Jacoby Brissett made a much needed return from injury on Sunday and there are reports that T.Y. Hilton could play for the first time since week eight. But it is the loss of star running back Marlon Mack that is the biggest news out of Indy this week. The broken hand picked up in the win against the Jaguars will keep him out for a number of games following surgery on Monday. He had been a top five back to this point and it will be a big hole to fill.

Jonathan Williams had a very impressive 113 yards after taking over from Mack, but that is more than he managed in his previous four years in the league combined. It is hard not to think that was something of an outlier. I would expect Nyheim Hines to see more action of the two back-ups. He is a lot more used to the offence and for me, a good bet to take a bigger share of the workload left by Mack.

Watson can bounce back

The Texans were completely blown out by the Ravens on Sunday in what was a really disappointing performance, particularly from Deshaun Watson. He went without a touchdown either passing or rushing for the first time in his entire NFL career but expect him to bounce back here. He went into the game with the Ravens as a leading contender for league MVP and he is still that player. He has shown time and time again that he has bags of character and he will want to show just how good a player he is against his division rivals.

One of the men that can help him do so is DeAndre Hopkins. Many will see him as having a bit of a down year but he is second to only Michael Thomas in receptions and is still one of the most dominant receivers in the league. He has not been helped by those around him such as Will Fuller, Kenny Stills and Keke Coutee seemingly getting a new injury each week but his down year would be a career year for many. Watson and Hopkins could well be the best duo in the league right now.

The picks

These big games can often be nervy affairs and I would expect that here. 10 of the past 12 meetings between the sides have been decided by a score or less and this one looks like it could head the same way. Houston just have a few more weapons and with Mack out, the edge looks to be with the home team. I am avoiding the 3.5 point handicap, but I like the Texans to win by 1-13 points.

Hines is the running back I am expecting to see get the most work for the Colts. He is a threat in the passing game as well and a good bet to score a touchdown.

Watson has 12 rushing touchdowns in his 33 career games and is always a threat to run one in. His rushing touchdowns are a little lower this year than his previous two and I like him to score any time here.

There is a long shot that has caught my eye in this one. I expect a close game and a nervous start from both with few points in the first half. A first half draw at 9/1 is pretty tempting but I am going for the double result of tie and a Houston win at 17/1.