Indianapolis Colts @ Baltimore Ravens: A 13.5pt handicap is just too much

Neil Monnery
23 December 2017

Joe Flacco should be primed for a big day against the Indianapolis Colts

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The first game of Week 16 comes from Baltimore as the Ravens look to stay in the wildcard hunt. Neil Monnery looks into whether they'll still be in contention going into the final week of games...

"Indy are getting 13.5 points on the spread. That is a huge number. I like Baltimore to win with relative comfort but I'm struggling to feel confident they win by that many."

Indianapolis Colts @ Baltimore Ravens
Saturday 23 December, 21:30
TV: Live on Sky Sports Action & Main Event

For the Colts...

I previewed Indy's game last week and correctly tipped them to lose at home to Denver. My primary thought was coming off the short week, coupled with the snow game in Buffalo, they would run out of stream. This is pretty much exactly how it played out.

On Saturday night they travel to face a team who is still very much in the hunt. Jacoby Brissett will have to make some plays if the Colts want to come up with the surprise win. He's been playing to limit the mistakes all season long but that isn't good enough for a team whose defense isn't going to overwhelm anyone.

Frank Gore is looking to get a 1,000 yard season under his belt but would need two very good games to get there. Rookie Marlon Mack should see more action as he gets further integrated into the Colts running game.

T.Y. Hilton is still the one receiver who you'd have to game plan for. When you see he's only got 48 receptions through 14 games, it just shows how poor that Indy passing attack really is. They are not a very good team at all.

For the Ravens...

Baltimore need to beat the putrid Colts and down right pathetic Bengals to give them hope they'll sneak into a wildcard berth. Even with that, they will still need help but fellow playoff hopefuls Tennessee play the LA Rams along with Jacksonville, both extremely tricky games.

Joe Flacco is still dining off of his magic run to Super Bowl XLVII glory but his 2017 season has perked up as we've gotten deeper into the season. Having thrown for more than 250 yards in three straight with only one interception, some observers are starting to wonder whether Baltimore are a dark horse that can worry the likes of Pittsburgh and New England. I'm not one of them.

Mike Wallace is still a bona fide deep threat. If he's playing then the Quarterback always has the option of throwing the ball down the field. The other receivers though aren't much to write home about.

The man I do like is Alex Collins in the backfield. The second year player has emerged as a respectable between the tackles runner who averages 4.9 yards/run. Last week he got stuffed but he'll bounce back.

The Picks...

Indy are getting 13.5 points on the spread. That is a huge number. I like Baltimore to win with relative comfort but I'm struggling to feel confident they win by that many. For that reason I'll go with Indy+13.5 for 1.9310/11 on the Exchange.

Points-wise the line has been set at 41. That is right at the number I'd put it. For me this is a real toss of the coin but I'll lean under at 1.9620/21 on the Exchange.

On the side markets, I singled out Marlon Mack for more playing time earlier so at 11/2 to score at anytime, I see some value there.

Recommended bets

3pt Back Indy+13.5 at 1.9310/11 on the Exchange
1pt Back under 41pts at 1.9620/21 on the Exchange
1pt Back Marlon Mack to score anytime at 11/2 on the Sportsbook