Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans
Friday October 10, 01:25
Live on Sky Sports 2
On paper, this could be sold to you as a close match-up, with both sides standing at 3-2 in the AFC South. Scratch the surface though, and things start to appear very different. The Colts have produced some handsome play so far, and look as if they could go all the way to the title. But the Texans could be this season's Dorian Gray. They offer the illusion of normality, but closer inspection reveals a horribly unbalanced and disfigured reality.
For example, the teams may have identical records, but Indy's results have come against more impressive opponents. Worthy of particular mention is the way the Colts lost in respectably close fashion to Philadelphia (4-1) and Denver (3-1). By contrast, Houston's 30-13 loss to the decidedly-average Giants suggests they have some deep-rooted problems. And while the Texans got kudos for pushing the Cowboys last week, let's not forget, this is a Dallas team that was ridiculed after Week One and which for me is the most over-hyped team in the league right now.
It's the teams' stats though that highlight the true gulf in class. Despite having faced, in my opinion, much stronger opposition, Indianapolis still lead Houston in most aspects of the game. On offense, the Colts currently rank as the best passing team in the league. Number one draft pick of 2012, Andrew Luck, is on course to be this season's top quarterback. And he loves playing divisional rivals, with Indy having won their last nine in a row in the AFC South. Luck already has 1,617 yards and 14 touchdowns to his name, with receivers T.Y. Hilton and Reggie Wayne getting an equal share of his love. Compare this to 24th ranked Houston, whose QB Ryan Fitzpatrick trails Luck by eight touchdowns and more than 500 yards. And that's despite having faced the likes of the hapless Raiders and Redskins already.
Luck will face a Houston defense that's been much improved in terms of takeaways this season. However, those picks came against the likes of EJ Manuel and Derek Carr. Andy Luck is different gravy compared to those guys. And with the protection of a much stronger Colts' offensive line, he's unlikely to be so careless.
Houston's running game offers their one ray of hope. Arian Foster is this season's third best rusher, despite having missed a game, thus highlighting his team's dependence on the run. The Texan's entire gameplan could rest upon his ageing, and now increasingly injury prone, shoulders. If the Texans are to hit paydirt, Foster is hot favourite to be the man to do so. But he could be in for a difficult evening against Indy's 11th ranked run-defense, that's yet to allow a 100 yard rusher this season, and which held LeSean McCoy to just 79 yards in Week Two.
Have no doubts, the Colts will be expecting the Texans to run the ball and will be ready and waiting for it. This will place a lot of responsibility on the shoulders of Fitzpatrick, who could find himself needing to make a lot of third down conversions. But he'll need to do so against a Colts defense that brings a lot of heat, with Indy's six interceptions and 12 sacks putting them among the best in the NFL. I can see the turnovers coming already.
And if they do lose the ball, Houston may spend a long time waiting to get it back, as no team has spent more time in possession of the ball this season than the Colts. With Ahmad Bradshaw now on board to help out Trent Richardson, Indy have found a running back tandem that can grind out the hard yards for them and tee-up a passing offense that's produced more yards than anyone else in the league.
With the Colts tending to hog the ball, and with Houston set to rely heavily on Arian Foster, the game clock could get eaten up quite quickly which suggests going low on game points. While in terms of a winner, as Christopher Lambert so acutely observed in the film Highlander, "there can be only one", and here it has to be Indianapolis, who appear to hold almost all the aces it what looks like a stacked game.
Recommended Bets
Back Indianapolis (-2.5) to beat Houston @ 1.9110/11
Back Indianapolis (-1.5) to beat Houston in first half @ 1.9110/11 or better
Back Total Points to be Under 46.5 @ 2.01/1