NFL Tips: Brady's bunch to destroy terrible Texans

Neil Harvey
14 January 2017

Tom Brady won't need to extend himself in a game the Patriots look set to dominate

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It's one of the biggest playoff handicaps ever seen, but New England can overcome it according to Neil Harvey, who's predicting a landslide win for the Patriots over Houston...

"The 15 point handicap looks large, but not when one side has such a poor offense. Houston's defense may again be forced to spend large amounts of time on the field and will surely become demoralised and tire late on"

Houston Texans @ New England Patriots
Monday, 01:15
Live on Sky Sports

New England are giving up 15.5 points in this game - the biggest playoff handicap seen in the NFL postseason for 18 years - and there's good reason why. When these teams met in Week Three, the result was a blowout 27-0 victory for the Patriots. Bill Belichick's side were playing their third-string quarterback and yet still managed to breeze past the Texans vaunted defense like it wasn't there. This time they'll have Tom Brady back under centre. Now seems the right time to wheel out the old gag about Houston having two hopes - Bob Hope and no hope.

Houston overcame Oakland last week. But that was a Raiders team that had been left rudderless without Derek Carr. Some teams, such as Oakland, are totally dependent upon their quarterbacks. Others, like New England, have proven they are not - such is the strength they possess in all other positions. In a strange way, Houston aren't dependent on their QB either. But that's only because they've got used to not really having one. Brock Osweiler has been a big, fat flop this season. But he's been saved time and time again by his defense. Houston may have won last week, but Osweiler was again underwhelming - amassing only 168 passing yards in victory.

When these teams last met, Osweiler's offense managed to make just seven plays in the New England half. It was embarrassing. That given, you have to give respect to the Houston defense, who spent as much time on the field as is just about possible in a game. They must have been out on their feet - and yet still kept the score against them to under 30 points. That's better than most teams managed against New England this season. With Tom Brady missing, Belichick used his battering ram, LeGarrette Blount, to blast through the Texans with Blount rushing for 105 yards and two touchdowns.

Belichik is a horses for courses guy who likes to expose an opponent's weakness. In this case that's Houston's run defense, relatively speaking of course. And so I expect New England to lead off with another heavy dose of Blount. The Texans also concede a relatively high ratio of rushing touchdowns compared to passing ones, and so that makes Blount an extremely strong call to charge through for the game's opening score. Given that Blount is frequently engaged to help run out the clock in games too, his quote of 78 yards looks on the low side. I'll also advocate a small dabble on Brady for the first TD as he's not short on confidence and loves the quarterback sneak. Plus the price of 33/1 is huge.

In terms of passing, Brady faces an excellent Houston pass defense. And the Texans' pass rushers are sure to be gunning for him - they'll know that getting turnovers is really their only chance of winning this. But New England will be aware of this too and Belichick is too smart to take unnecessary chances. So I expect Brady to be tasked with making plenty of short to mid-range, and more importantly low-risk, passes. This is New England's game to lose. They have nothing to gain by being gung-ho. So the quote of 258 passing yards for Tom Brady might look low, but I think it's actually too high - in a game where he won't ever need to unfurl the deep ball.

Brady's likely to keep the field short. That usually means a solid game for Julian Edelman who plays like a jack in the box. His quote of 69 yards looks eminently attainable given the number of looks he should get. I definitely don't fancy Chris Hogan's chances of breaking 40 yards though. He could feasibly go all game without a target and will be facing competition for anything aimed deep from the emerging Malcolm Mitchell.

Houston running back Lamar Miller's hopes of reaching 69 yards will depend largely on his early efforts, given that Houston may have to abandon the run by half time. He managed 80 yards though the last time these teams met, and so looks worth supporting. Osweiler though looks impossible to support. He's likely to be given little to do as Houston look to play low-risk offense and aggressive defense early on. They'll be trying to simply stay in the game. If and when he's forced to air it out - that's when the turnovers look certain to follow and it's entirely conceivable we could see Osweiler replaced by Tom Savage before the end of the game. I strongly recommend going low on Osweiler's quote of 216 yards, small though it already seems.

With a lot of safety first football possible in the first half, we might not see a huge score prior to the break. Things should open up in the second half though, with New England capable of pulling away for a big win. The 15 point handicap looks large, but not when one side has such a poor offense. Houston's defense may again be forced to spend large amounts of time on the field and will surely become demoralised and tire late on. So I'll be looking to the Patriots to add some late scores and perhaps from some less expected sources, with some of the big names being treated to an early bath if the Pats are out of sight. Hence I fancy James White and Dion Lewis for an anytime TD at big prices.