Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions: Back the Pack

Luca Bercelli
18 November 2012

Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers

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This one is by no means clear cut but, having weighed up the form and uncovered some compelling stats, Luca Bercelli believes the Packers can win in Detroit...

Recommended Bets
Back the Green Bay Packers @ 1.528/15
Back the Green Bay Packers (-3.0 pts) @ 1.794/5
Back the Green Bay Packers First Half Points Spread (-3.0 pts) @ 1.910/11

Green Bay come into this contest after a bye week. They will no doubt have enjoyed their mid-season holiday in which highlights of the Lions' 34-24 slip-up to the Vikings probably took top billing. Coaches and players alike will have concluded from that DVD nasty that the plan to beat Detroit is a simple one. Get pressure on quarterback Matthew Stafford and stop Megatron.

This plan would have been much easier to execute without the loss through injury of one of the most effective pass rushers in the NFL, Clay Mathews. Even without him the Packers should be able to distract Stafford enough to stop the flow of ammunition to Megatron, which is a must as the Transformer had a ridiculous week against the Vikes, racking up 207 yards despite regularly finding himself in double and triple coverage. But that scoreline proved that one man does not an NFL team make.

Despite that loss the Lions have had a pretty consistent season; they've beaten the teams they should have beaten and haven't taken a spanking from anyone (including against highly-rated San Francisco and Chicago). Their 4-5 record won't have the Packers quaking in their boots, but on the flipside the Lions don't look ready to roll over, whatever the opposition.

This is a tricky one to call - as the tight handicap, Green Bay (-3.0pts) suggests. The Packers are favourites despite the head start for Detroit, and I just lean on the green side of the fence. If it hadn't been for a lacklustre performance by the Lions last week, the selection might have been different but after that pasting they don't exactly seem to be a team on the upgrade.

That weak effort included soaking up 171 yards rushing by Adrian Peterson. The Lions won't be the first team to get burned repeatedly by the superhuman running machine but, unluckily for them, Green Bay re-discovered a ground game last time out. Rushing duties were shared out amongst Randall Cobb, Alex Green, James Starks and QB Rodgers, and between them they managed to rack up the team's best total since 2009.
Any kind of running game for Green Bay spells big trouble for opposing defences because Aaron Rodgers, itching to pull the trigger, will pounce on any defensive hesitation. With extra time to direct his lasers he could be in for a field day so take him on at your peril.

A crazy stat that emerged when researching this match was the fact that Detroit have been horrible in the first half of games this season, leading only once at half time. If you like your stats the First Half Points Spread market could be tempting as Green Bay are 1.910/11 to cover a -3.0 point deficit.