1) Denver to commit most turnovers @ 1.715/7 or better
Seattle called one of their practice sessions this week 'Turnover Thursday', as they dedicated the entire day to turnovers - creating them on defense and not making them on offense. So the Seahawks have recognized the huge importance of winning the turnover battle on Sunday. And they are right to. Because Super Bowl history tells us that the team committing the most turnovers has a less than 10 percent chance of winning the game. So Seattle have been leaving nothing to chance, even though they already look sure-things to win this part of the contest. For example, Seattle's turnover differential for the regular season was +20, whereas the Broncos lost possession as much as they gained it, with a differential of zero. And that's a trend that continued into the play-offs, with Seattle again coming out on top. So take the huge price available on the Seahawks to win a turnover contest they've been winning all season.
2) Peyton Manning passing yards to be under 295.5 @ 1.9110/11 or better
No disrespect to Peyton Manning. He's a sensational player. But the fact remains that there is a cavernous gap between how well he plays in good weather and how well he plays in the cold. It seems almost prophetic that the temperature forecast for Sunday's big game has been revised up to 40 degrees for kick-off. Because it's when playing at this temperature or below that Manning's troubles begin. In these conditions, his passer rating, normally 90 for play-off games, plummets to below 60. He also throws more interceptions than touchdowns. Consequently, he's never won a postseason game in such weather. Not only is this Super Bowl expected to be cold, but there's also a 50 percent chance of rain. Wet hands make for dropped catches and misthrown passes, and even more so when those hands are cold. Manning is also up against the NFL's number one ranked pass-defense, which conceded on average just one touchdown and 172 yards a game in the regular season. For Manning to get near 300 yards, he'd need to have an almost perfect game. History though, tells us he won't.
3) Marshawn Lynch rushing yards to be over 88.5 @ 1.9110/11 or better
Seattle are a running team. And the man leading that running attack is Marshawn Lynch. If one thing is for certain in this Super Bowl, it's that Seattle will start the game by running the ball, and will continue to do so until such point as Denver are forced to over-commit their defensive resources to stopping it, and so open up greater chances for Russell Wilson to throw the ball. And even then, they'll probably continue to run the ball. Just watch the tape of Seattle's last game, against San Francisco. Lynch pounded away at San Fran's highly-rated defensive line with little success in the first half. But did that deter the Seahawks from their gameplan? No Sir. Instead, they just put even more effort into establishing the run. And the result? Lynch burst clear for a 40 yard touchdown in the second half, went over 100 yards for the game, and helped put his team into the Superbowl. The Broncos have conceded eight points per game more to running backs than San Francisco this season. That doesn't bode well for their chances of stopping Lynch. And the cold and rain that's forecast will serve only to place an even greater emphasis on the running game.
4) Marshawn Lynch to score a touchdown @ 1.664/6
See above. Plus, as well as being Seattle's main offensive weapon, Lynch is also their go-to man in the Red Zone. He had 12 touchdowns during the regular season and scored three further TDs in the two subsequent play-off games. The Broncos also give up plenty of rushing touchdowns, having conceded 15 during their 16 regular season games. Compare that to the mere four allowed by the Seahawks. As soon as Seattle get near the Denver endzone, expect Marshawn to get ball in hand. And barring an injury, he looks nailed-on to hit paydirt at some time in the game.
5) LAY Peyton Manning to win MVP @ 2.265/4
There's a much publicised myth that the winning quarterback in the Super Bowl almost always gets named the game's Most Valuable Player. But that's just not true. In the 47 previous Super Bowls, it's happened just 26 times. So even if Denver win this game, there's no guarantee that Peyton Manning will be the MVP. The fact that he's quoted to make just two or three touchdown passes doesn't support his case. Neither does his track record in the cold, nor the fact that he's up against the best defense in the NFL. Even if Denver do win, the markets suggest Manning will have, at best, a 300 yard game and not the kind of 400 yard, four touchdown performance he often posted against weak defenses during the regular season. But now let's consider the possibility that Denver don't even win, which is a close to even-money shot. In that case, you can be certain that Manning won't be MVP. Marshawn Lynch looks a big-price candidate, with Seattle likely to run the ball a ton. Seattle QB Russell Wilson also likes to run the ball, and a well-timed dart for the endzone could help secure him the honours. Even someone like cornerback Richard Sherman can't be ruled out, given that his defensive plays could prove the difference between victory and defeat. All said and done, the price on Manning scooping the award just isn't value. So lay him accordingly.