Thursday games haven't been the best but Neil Monnery expects fans of offense to enjoy a high scoring game in Florida tonight...
"Matty Ice has been one of the revelations of the season so far with a 19:4 TD/INT ratio. He is throwing it all over the shop and teams can either double cover Julio Jones all night, allowing the likes of Mohamed Sanu to get wide open, or let Jones torch them when left one on one."
Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Start-time: Friday 4 November, 00:25 BST
TV: Live on Sky Sports
The Thursday Night Football commentating duties hand over to Al Michaels and Cris Collinsworth tonight. That alone might be the best thing about this match-up so we need to sort out some bets to keep us all entertained.
The Falcons were a team I was starting to really like before they lost to the Chargers at home. However last week they managed to hold on to beat the Packers late, which was a respectable win, and tonight they can take control of the NFC South.
Matty Ice has been one of the revelations of the season so far with a 19:4 TD/INT ratio. He is throwing it all over the shop and teams can either double cover Julio Jones all night, allowing the likes of Mohamed Sanu to get wide open, or let Jones torch them when left one-on-one. I think this will be a massive night for the former Alabama star. He already has four 100+ yard receiving games this season and I'm betting on that becoming five.
Both Jones and Sanu scored when the teams met on the opening weekend of the season. That is also a worthwhile stat to know.
On the other side, I'm just not a Tampa Bay guy at all. I don't think Jameis Winston is going to ever be that QB many projected he would be. Yet I will concede in the past three weeks he's protected the football far better with a 6:1 TD/INT ratio. In the previous four games that number was 8:8.
The line of him tonight is over/under 285.5 yards and he's only gone over that number once this season. However Jacquizz Rodgers, who has been playing well in the past three weeks is out with a sprained foot and they'll go with a running back by committee with none of them any good. Winston will be forced to throw, throw, throw. Maybe that is why the line is seemingly so high.
I think the Falcons win big and I love both Devonta Freeman and Julio Jones for big days. In terms of first TD though I think the value is with Mohamed Sanu at 11/1 on the Sportsbook. Jones is 5/6 to score at any time and I think that is surprising value as well.
On the Tampa Bay side if I'm going to play a point in the first TD market then it'll certainly be on Mike Evans at 9/1. He can be backed at 10/11 anytime.
The line has been set at 51.5pts, which I think is a a touch high but at the time of writing you can get 2.1211/10 on the Exchange, which isn't actually too bad. I think Atlanta roll to 30+ points with ease so can Tampa Bay score 17-20? They probably can.
Go over 51.5 if you can get better than Evens.
The Spread & Straight-up Pick
The spread is set at Atlanta -3.5pts and that is hilarious. Atlanta will surely win big and cover that with ease so I want to go further. I want value and I've found that on the Exchange at 3.02/1 with a 9.5pt handicap for Atlanta.
I've loaded up on the prop bets expecting a high scoring encounter. I don't expect them all to come in but expect more will than won't.
3pt Back Atlanta to win with a 9.5pt handicap at 3.02/1 on the Exchange
3pt Back over 51.5pts at 2.1211/10 on the Exchange
3pt Back Julio Jones over 96.5 receiving yards at 5/6 on the Sportsbook
3pt Back Devonta Freeman over 98.5 rushing yards at 5/6 on the Sportsbook
3pt Back Matt Ryan over 292.5 throwing yards at 5/6 on the Sportsbook
3pt Back Jameis Winston over 285.5 throwing yards at 5/6 on the Sportsbook
3pt Back Mohamed Sanu over 44.5 receiving yards at 5/6 on the Sportsbook
1pt Back Mike Evans to score the first TD at 9/1 in the First Touchdown scorer market on the Sportsbook
1pt Back Mohamed Sanu to score the first TD at 13/1 in the First Touchdown scorer market on the Sportsbook
Neil Monnery NFL P/L
Staked - 211pts
Returned - 277.44pts
P&L - +66.44pts
Staked - 236pts
Returned - 219.83pts
P&L - -16.17pts