Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Bills
Christmas Eve, 18:00
Live on Sky Sports
The Miami Dolphins are in control of their own destiny but they travel to upstate New York on Saturday without their starting QB. Matt Moore will once again step in for the injured Ryan Tannehill and they'll be hope he can play up to last Saturday's level when he threw for 234 yards with four TDs and one pick in the win over the New York Jets.
The problem with backup QBs is opposition teams quickly get to watch and dissect game film. Last week the Jets will have had very little on Moore, you can bet your bottom dollar that the Bills will have broken down every single snap he took in that game against the weary Jets.
Despite their 9-5 record it's been hard to believe in Miami all season long. They have been on a great run but you just keep expecting them to lose. They do nothing especially well and when it comes to crunch time, these teams get found out.
For Buffalo, you can't move for reports that head coach Rex Ryan is going to get fired imminently. Yet it has been two weeks and he's still at the helm. They have no QB of note and do not have much top level talent but have put together a 7-7 season so far. LeSean McCoy has been explosive in the backfield racking up six games where he's rushed for over 100 yards. I think the Bills are better than a lot of people think.
The Dolphins are getting 3.5 here and I still don't like them. It is going to be cold, the rain is expected to have swept through but Miami on the road without their starting QB against a divisional rival in the cold? Not for me. Buffalo derail Miami's march to the post season much to the disappointment of the US Sports editor here at betting.betfair.com...
3pt Back Buffalo with a 4.5pt handicap to win at 10/11 at 20/23 on the Sportsbook
3pt Back over 89.5 rushing yards for LeSean McCoy at 5/6 on the Sportsbook
3pt Back over 186.5 throwing yards for Matt Moore at 5/6 on the Sportsbook
1pt Back LeSean McCoy to score the first touchdown at 7/1 on the Sportsbook
1pt Back Jay Ajayi to score the first touchdown at 7/1 on the Sportsbook
Indianapolis Colts @ Oakland Raiders
Christmas Eve, 21:05
Live on Sky Sports
Clear all your family duties on Christmas eve so you can enjoy the second live game on Sky Sports. The Raiders are going to be playing in January for the first time since I was a wide-eyed first year journalism student at the Surrey Institute of Art & Design. The big question for them is can they secure a first-round bye?
Derek Carr still seems to be struggling with a finger injury that is forcing him to take snaps out of the pistol or shotgun formations, and it is clearly hurting the Raiders running game. The talk is they do not expect Carr to go under Center at all for the rest of the regular season until the finger is fully healed. This is a concern. A big concern.
The Colts are firmly in the mix in the putrid AFC South and they get the Jaguars next week so a win here and they look set to win the division. Andrew Luck is one of my favourite punching bags through my prose because everyone says he's great when he clearly isn't. However, even I will admit he's a very good QB who has all the throws in his arsenal.
I was surprised when I saw the home team were 3.5pt favourites. I think having secured their spot in the playoffs, coupled with Carr's finger injury (which when you watch him is seriously impacting his throwing motion) then I think this has big letdown written all over it. I have Indy winning straight up in the upset which at the time of writing is available at 2.727/4 on the Exchange.
3pt Back Indianapolis to win straight up at 2.727/4 on the Exchange
3pt Back over 24.5 points scored by Indianapolis at 10/11 on the Sportsbook
3pt Back over 264.5 throwing yards for Andrew Luck at 5/6 on the Sportsbook
1pt Back Donte Moncrief to score the first TD at 11/1 on the Sportsbook
1pt Back Mychal Rivera to score the first TD at 22/1 on the Sportsbook