After two defeats against AFC rivals, Neil Monnery thinks Thursday night at home on a short week sounds like the perfect time for the Bengals to show us what they've got.
"I have never (and suspect will never) have faith in Ryan Tannehill. He is just another of these big armed quarterbacks who just can't get the job done."
Miami Dolphins @ Cincinnati Bengals
Start-time: Friday 30 September, 01:25 BST
TV: Live on Sky Sports
Two 1-2 teams face off on Thursday Night Football hoping to kick start their stuttering campaigns. Most of us didn't have the Dolphins as contenders anyway but the Cincinnati Bengals certainly had aspirations to go deep, so for them it is time to get back on track.
Linebacker Vontaze Burfict who spent the first three weeks suspended for repeated violation of player safety rules should strengthen Cincinnati. He is a key component not just to the defense on the field but also the locker room. His return will give everybody a lift. Tyler Eifert though is listed as doubtful. If the Tight End returns it'll surely only be for limited snaps and they will miss him in the Red Zone.
They have lost back-to-back games against the Steelers and Broncos, two of the best in the AFC. Sunday's defeat at home to Denver will have come as a shock with Denver QB Trevor Siemian carving them open for 312 yards and four touchdowns. They'll need to get pressure on the QB in this match-up and I think Geno Atkins and co will step up.
For Miami, I do not sense good times. On Sunday they should have lost at home against the Browns but Cleveland did what they always do - tripped over their own feet and allowed the Dolphins to sneak into overtime and eventually win.
I have never (and suspect will never) have faith in Ryan Tannehill. He is just another of these big-armed quarterbacks who just can't get the job done. So it'll be down to their running game and they don't even have a featured back. The plan is to have a four-man running back by committee for this game. That does not fill me with hope at all.
With Miami having four different guys potentially lining up in the backfield, you have to play their best WR Jarvis Landry at 10/1 for the Dolphins. I'm still kicking myself for not playing Jacoby Brissett at 40/1 last week when I did specifically go to look at the price, so I will go with Andy Dalton at 33/1 for the Bengals. Dalton had six rushes for 40 yards against Denver on a quite speculative tip.
For last Thursday's game I wrote, 'I hate taking the unders but I just don't see a big scoring game' and I could just as easily write that again. So I will. This time though I will go with logic and go with the unders. I see the home team dominating and the Dolphins just not getting much done at all on offense.
The Spread & Straight-up Pick
The spread has been set at Cincinnati -7.5pts on the Sportsbook and I think that is about the right price. I have tipped the underdog to win straight up in all three Thursday games so far and they've done just that, but that streak ends in Ohio. I think the Bengals clearly win straight up but are way too short to tip. With a 7.5pt handicap I still think they cover as they try to re-establish themselves as a serious contender.
3pt Back the Cincinnati Bengals -7.5pts to win at 21/20 on the Sportsbook
2pt Back under 44.5pts at 2.021/1 on the Exchange
1pt Back Jarvis Landry to score the first TD at 10/1 in the First Touchdown scorer market on the Sportsbook
1pt Back Andy Dalton to score the first TD at 33/1 in the First Touchdown scorer market on the Sportsbook
Neil Monnery NFL P/L
Staked - 211pts
Returned - 277.44pts
P&L - +66.44pts
Staked - 44pts
Returned - 24.33pts
P&L - -19.67pts