Denver Broncos @ Indianapolis Colts
Friday 15 December, 01:25
TV: Live on Sky Sports Action & Main Event
For the Colts...
Coming off the short week following that snow game in Buffalo is a tough ask. That would have just taken it out of the players.
Jacoby Brissett came in for the injured Andrew Luck at the start of the season and has been dependable. He's not flashy but he's played well enough to keep his team in games. The problem he has is they have no running game to take the pressure off.
Frank Gore did rush for 130 yards on Sunday but that was on 36 carries in the snow. That was the first game this season a Colt went for three-figures on the ground.
T.Y. Hilton is a very good receiver but he's the only skill player that an opposition defence has to really account for. Add to that the o-line has been woeful for years, you can see why this team is bottom of the AFC South with a 3-10 record.
For the Broncos...
Denver got off to a hot 3-1 start before reeling off eight straight defeats. First year Head Coach Vance Joseph is starting to sit uncomfortably as his seat is getting increasingly warm.
The old adage is, if you have two Quarterbacks then you have none. The Broncos have started three different players in that position this term and none of them have looked good enough. Trevor Siemian gets the start tonight after a solid 19/31 day for 200 yards and a score in Sunday's win that halted that long losing streak.
In that victory, they called 32 run plays compared to 31 drop-backs to pass. The rushing game didn't exactly impress but the balanced offense seemed to work. I expect to see plenty of snaps for the running backs.
Everyone knows that Denver have a Super Bowl calibre defense but this year, it hasn't been as good as advertised. Whether that is because of the change in coaching or they've started to believe their own hype, who knows? Yet the quality of players is still very much there.
This feels like a trap that I'm about to walk right into. The fact Denver are giving points on the road frightens the life out of me but that snow game was energy-sapping for Indy. For that reason alone, I'll go with Denver giving up 2.5. That is currently trading at 1.9210/11 on the Exchange.
Points-wise the line has been set at 41. Both teams struggle with the ball so this feels like an under play, even though the line is set so low. A full three point back on the under for me at 1.9620/21 on the Exchange.
On the side markets, two one point plays here. Both are determined by my thoughts of the two stinky offenses. Denver's D/ST are 16/5 to score anytime with Indy at 6/1 for exactly the same.
3pt Back Denver-2.5 at 1.9210/11 on the Exchange
3pt Back under 41pts at 1.9620/21 on the Exchange
1pt Back Denver's D/ST to score anytime at 16/5 on the Sportsbook
1pt Back Indy's D/ST to score anytime at 6/1 on the Sportsbook