Live NFL Sunday Tips: Still no joy for reeling Packers or Broncos

Neil Monnery
20 November 2015

Aaron Rodgers has his banged up shoulder face an uphill task at the 7-2 Vikings

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With no Peyton Manning (injured) and Aaron Rodgers struggling with a shoulder injury, Neil Monnery isn't liking either of their teams to have a good day on Sunday.

"I want to go with the Packers because I don't want to believe that they are on such a deep downward spiral but they have too many problems. The fact Aaron Rodgers has appeared on the injury report on Friday for the first time this season (shoulder) is another huge concern."

Denver Broncos @ Chicago Bears
Start-time: Sunday 18:00
TV: Live on Sky Sports 2

This game opened up with Denver giving up 6.5 points. Peyton Manning gets injured and on Friday the Broncos were getting 1.5 on the spread. That is a swing of eight points to the Bears based solely on the injury to #18. Yet both my colleagues who have written about this game believe that they are better now Manning is sitting. With Bart Barden saying, Denver's offense will immediately be more effective with Peyton being out and Luca Bercelli in his Sunday NFL tipsheet intimating that the injury might be bogus just so the head coach could pull the plug without causing a media controversy. Still the spread had swung again by Saturday morning, with the Bears getting 0.5 points. This is one wild market.

My thoughts are well known, if the future Hall of Famer is healthy, he is clearly their best QB. Denver's offensive line and running game has been putrid for most of the season. I expect the Bears to load up the box and go hunting the QB, daring him to throw the ball until he can prove that he can.

ESPN analyst Ron Jaworski said on Pardon the Interruption last night that he believed Brock Osweiler has a chance to be successful in this game. He will certainly be far more comfortable than Peyton rolling out of the pocket, which is a plan Gary Kubiak likes. Expect a lot of two or three tight end sets with only one or two receiver patterns down field. They'll keep it simple.

On the other side of the ball the Denver D is not at full strength with DeMarcus Ware set to miss one more week. Yet they still have more than enough to keep the Broncos in this game no matter who was under center on the offense. I do however like what Adam Gase is doing with Jay Cutler. His QB play is improving and the beat down of St. Louis last week wasn't an aberration.

I have ummed and erred but my pick came down to the fact the two coaches in the NFL who know Brock Osweiler the best are John Fox and Adam Gase, both of whom are now on the Chicago Bears staff. They'll use this information to lead the Bears past the Broncos, which is currently at 2.0421/20 on the Exchange. I always like small plays on the first touchdown scorer and why not split a point a piece on both defenses to score first, at 18/1 and 20/1 on the Sportsbook?

Recommend Bets
2pt Back Chicago to win straight up at 2.0421/20 on the Exchange
1pt Back Denver Defense to score first at 18/1 on the Sportsbook
1pt Back Chicago Defense to score first at 20/1 on the Sportsbook

Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings
Start-time: Sunday, 21:25
TV: Live on Sky Sports 2

If you believe momentum is a force that carries over week after week then there is no need to read much of this preview. The Vikings have won five straight and only lost one in eight (at Denver) whereas the Packers have lost three on the spin and looked poor in doing so. This is a huge game for both teams.

There is some talk in the US media that Aaron Rodgers' relationship with Olivia Munn is a reason behind his recent poor play. The fact this is being written about and being taken seriously in some corners shows us everything that is wrong with modern journalism. The reason Rodgers isn't looking great is because he has a banged up shoulder, Green Bay have no running game and his receivers can't either a) get open or b) catch the ball. A quarterback's best friend is a running game, Rodgers doesn't have this. In the past three games they are averaging 69.3 yards on the ground, that just isn't getting it done.

Speaking of a running game brings us nicely to the Vikings and Adrian Peterson. He has five 100+ yard games this season and last week he scampered for 203 yards against the Raiders. He looks refreshed and strong. Teddy Bridgewater knows he can rely on him and as long as he doesn't make big mistakes, his team can win games. The former Louisville QB doesn't have to win it for his team and has thrown for only seven touchdowns with six interceptions this season. His role is clearly to be a game manager and let his running game and defense win games, his job is not to lose them.

I want to go with the Packers because I don't want to believe that they are on such a deep downward spiral but they have too many problems. The fact Rodgers appeared on the injury report on Friday for the first time this season (shoulder) is another huge concern. On the exchange you can get Minnesota at Evens with a 1.5 point handicap. I like it. I like it a lot. Over on the Sportsbook I'm having Minnesota scoring over 23.5 points at Evens and in the first TD market, Adrian Peterson at 9/2 is the play along with 14/1 for Devante Adams.

Recommend Bets
3pt Back Minnesota to win with a 1.5 point handicap at 2.01/1 on the Exchange
2pt Back Minnesota to score over 23.5 points at Evens on the Sportsbook
1pt Back Adrian Peterson to score first at 9/2 on the Sportsbook
1pt Back Devante Adams to score first at 14/1 on the Sportsbook