NFL Betting: Expect points a plenty at Wembley when the Colts meet the Jags

Andrew Luck will put up the points on Sunday at Wembley
Andrew Luck will put up the points on Sunday at Wembley

The first of the three Wembley games takes place this Sunday and Neil Monnery expects it'll be one for fans of high scoring and shoddy defense...


"The Jags have crushed me through three weeks so now it is time they pay me back. What is it they say? Fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice, shame on me, fool me three times then I'm an idiot and fool me four times well they I'm going to go and cry. Don't make me go and cry Jags!"

Indianopolis Colts @ Jacksonville Jaguars (in London)
Start-time: Sunday 2 October 2016, 14:30 BST
TV: Live on Sky Sports, BBC Two & BBC Sport Website
 


Overview


Now I have to take a few words to explain the following. I have ragged on Andrew Luck for being overrated for years and the Jacksonville Jaguars are the team I root for. So take that into account but I'm going to preview this as straight up as I can.

The truth is neither of these teams is any good. I had big hopes for the Jags coming into the season and while they should have beaten Green Bay and Baltimore, they didn't. They find ways to trip over themselves. Blake Bortles has not looked as composed in the passing game through three weeks as he did last year and considering the plethora of weapons he has to throw to, that is a worry.

On the defensive side of the ball the Jags have spent money and high draft picks and it isn't gelling yet. I think they'll get there but for now backing Jacksonville to tame a QB of Luck's calibre (who I think is real good, just not at the elite level yet) is something I'd find tough to do.

Yet at least they aren't the Colts when it comes to defense. They've given up 91 points through three match-ups and looked ugly doing it. Trusting them to keep a team below its over/under line is like trusting a cat not to eat a thawing Christmas Turkey that is left on the kitchen sideboard on Christmas Eve.

Luck has the quality to slice open the Jags defense but heck, so do most Quarterbacks. I wouldn't be surprised if he has a stellar day though on Sunday because this game has offense written all over it and that is where my points will be stacked in this preview.


First Touchdown Scorer


I am a Penn State guy. I have therefore watched Allen Robinson for years and know he's just absolutely first rate. At 9/1 in the First TD Market he is always value at that price. On the Colts' side of the ball I'm also going with their WR1, TY Hilton. He's available at 17/2. I don't like taking the favourites in this market but I just see big play potential all afternoon and these are the guys who make the most big plays for these two teams.


Over/Under


I've been banging on about good offenses and putrid defenses all preview so my tips here won't surprise you. I'm taking the over for both teams (Jags 24.5pts at 11/10 and Colts 25.5pts at 20/21). Also the extended over/under line on total points at 51.5 is available at 5/4 on the Sportsbook. I love all three.

The Jags have crushed me through three weeks so now it is time they pay me back. What is it they say? Fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice, shame on me, fool me three times then I'm an idiot and fool me four times well then I'm going to go and cry. Don't make me go and cry Jags!


The Spread & Straight-up Pick


The spread has been set as Jaguars +1.5 and I don't mind that spread. This is a toss-up game and if the Jaguars lose then it wouldn't shock me if head coach Gus Bradley gets fired en route back to Florida. As it is a toss-up game I'll take the underdog but only for a small play.


Recommend Bets

1pt Back Jacksonville Jaguars to win at [2.18[ on the Exchange
1pt Back Allen Robinson to score the first TD at 9/1 in the First Touchdown scorer market on the Sportsbook
1pt Back TY Hilton to score the first TD at 17/2 in the First Touchdown scorer market on the Sportsbook
3pt Back over 51.5pts at 5/4 on the extended over/under line on the Sportsbook
3pt Back over 24.5pts for Jacksonville at 11/10 on the over/under line on the Sportsbook
3pt Back over 25.5pts for Indianapolis at 20/21 on the over/under line on the Sportsbook


Neil Monnery NFL P/L

2015:

Staked - 211pts
Returned - 277.44pts
P&L - +66.44pts

2016:
Staked - 51pts
Returned - 37.77pts
P&L - -13.23pts

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