NFL Betting: Back the Browns to shock the world (well at least Baltimore)

Corey Coleman can have a sneaky big night in Baltimore
Corey Coleman can have a sneaky big night in Baltimore

The 0-9 Browns meet the 4-4 Ravens in a fixture that is typical of Thursday Night Football in the NFL this season. Neil Monnery thinks the best way to get through such a lacklustre encounter is to put a few pounds in the Betfair markets to keep it interesting...

"Joe Flacco has regressed to a middle of the pack QB with a 6:7 TD/INT ratio so far this season. He is missing on the deep balls far too often for this offense to really thrive."

Cleveland Browns @ Baltimore Ravens
Start-time: Friday 11 November, 01:25 BST
TV: Live on Sky Sports
 


Overview


The 0-9 Cleveland Browns. Just what the NFL needs to boost its dire TV ratings in prime time. I suppose it could be worse, it could be my Jacksonville Jaguars. Oh well, let's grit our teeth and get through this together. We can do this guys.

The Browns, as previously mentioned, have yet to win a game this season. I will though contend that they aren't the worst 0-9 team I've ever seen. They have some excitement on offense in the form of Corey Coleman and former Ohio State QB Terrelle Pryor. With two 100+ yard games receiving, Pryor has not just been a good story line and the importance of Coleman's return from injury can't be overstated.

Incidentally Terrelle Pryor was involved in one of my favourite plays ever in college:

Sweet memories!

On the Ravens side of the ball, they are 4-4 and beat their rivals the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday. They are a pretty average team with a strong offensive line but no dynamic running back. Luckily for them, the Browns can't stop the run so expect Terrance West to have a very good outing and exceed his over/under line with relative ease against a team who rank 31st for rushing defense in the league.

Joe Flacco has regressed to a middle of the pack QB with a 6:7 TD/INT ratio so far this season. He is missing on the deep balls far too often for this offense to really thrive. Both Mike Wallace and Steve Smith can go over the top and have big plays in them if Flacco can find them.

The long and short of it is Cleveland aren't any good and Baltimore aren't too much better. Maybe if the odds are good I'll tip the big upset. We'll come to that later...


First Touchdown Scorer


Dennis Pitta went for over 100 yards when the teams met in Week 2 and is available at 14/1 to score first. That is some value there for the Baltimore Tight End. For Cleveland it'll be the returning to full fitness Corey Coleman at 12/1. As usual a one point play on them both.


Over/Under


The line has been set at 45.5pts, which I think is a a touch low and at the time of writing you can get 2.0421/20 on the Exchange, which isn't actually too bad at all. I think the Browns will chuck it around and their wide receivers will have a solid enough day. They've only been short of 20 points twice this season and the least they've given up is 25 (to the Ravens in Week 2) so the over is the clear play here.


The Spread & Straight-up Pick


The spread is set at Baltimore -9.5pts and that isn't too bad. All logic points to a large Baltimore victory but I'm feeling like rolling the dice. The Browns are available at 5.14/1 to win this game straight up and that is the value play. It is a gut feel, risk pick based purely on market value but they'll be right up for this. Playing in front of a national TV audience, the Ravens coming off a tough gut it out win against their rivals. Roll with the Browns.

Wait a minute who are these men in white coats and why are they giving me a jacket with no sleeves...

I have five prop bets for players all at 57.5 yards or under, which is very attainable. Considering I think offense will be the victor in this game, I fully expect at least three of the five to come in for profit. So spread your liabilities across the top four Wide Receivers and the Ravens' primary Running Back, Terrance West. I'm playing them all at a bonza 6pts each.

Recommended Bets
3pt Back Cleveland to win straight up at 5.14/1 on the Exchange
3pt Back over 45.5pts at 2.0421/20 on the Exchange
6pt Back Mike Wallace over 57.5 receiving yards at 5/6 on the Sportsbook
6pt Back Terrance West over 55.5 rushing yards at 5/6 on the Sportsbook
6pt Back Terrelle Pryor over 49.5 receiving yards at 5/6 on the Sportsbook
6pt Back Corey Coleman over 45.5 recriving yards at 5/6 on the Sportsbook
6pt Back Steve Smith over 38.5 receiving yards at 5/6 on the Sportsbook
1pt Back Dennis Pitta to score the first TD at 14/1 in the First Touchdown scorer market on the Sportsbook
1pt Back Corey Coleman to score the first TD at 12/1 in the First Touchdown scorer market on the Sportsbook

Neil Monnery NFL P/L

2015:

Staked - 211pts
Returned - 277.44pts
P&L - +66.44pts

2016:
Staked - 280pts
Returned - 289.99pts
P&L - +9.99pts

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