San Francisco 49ers @ Green Bay Packers: Niners' number could be up in Wildcard Week

Romilly Evans
05 January 2014

Rodger that: Aaron and his oval buddy can rack up the air miles

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Romilly Evans reckons that the return of Aaron Rodgers, coupled the home advantage, can see Green Bay run the in-form Niners close...

"This could be one of the coldest games ever, with temperatures set to plummet to new lows and a 35% chance of snow"

San Francisco 49ers @ Green Bay Packers
Sunday January 5, 21:40
Live on Sky Sports 1

If a pivotal encounter between the Green Bay Packers and the San Francisco 49ers seems familiar, that's because it is. At least within the short course of the past year. They've met twice in season-defining matches and both results have been the same: the Niners burning the Pack in last year's play-offs before reasserting that dominance in Week One of the current campaign.

Should we, therefore, expect anything different this weekend? The NFL schedulers clearly do, billing this exciting match-up at the very climax to Wildcard Weekend. If they didn't think it would be close, primetime would've promoted a more fashionable tie. Then again, seeing as Matt Flynn has been replaced under centre at Green Bay by the rehabilitated Aaron Rodgers, perhaps we shouldn't be so surprised.

Make no mistake, Rodgers' return is the game-changing moment here, turning an otherwise uncompetitive match-up (between teams sporting 12-4 and 8-7-1 records) into a field-goal coin-toss. Sure, streaking San Francisco may still be three-point favourites, but if these teams had met three weeks ago, this tie would've barely merited a Wildcard footnote.

That said, the Packers would not be in the play-offs but for "stand-in Flynn". While Rodgers was failing weekly medicals on his fractured collarbone, Flynn stepped up - keeping his team in the hunt for the NFC North with rousing comebacks over Minnesota and the clincher against Dallas. Sure, Rodgers stole the glory and the plaudits when capturing an aggressively average division with an 11th-hour hour drive and last-minute connection to Randall Cobb against the Bears. Still, no matter how the chips may fall from hereon in, never forget that Green Bay needed Flynn to nurture the hope that there was even hope of a postseason.

Now that we're here, though, let's deal with the realities that matter. The Pack need to find an answer to the redoubtable riddle of the Niners and their quarterback Colin Kaepernick who flayed them for 181 yards on the level this time last year.

Kaepernick's twin-threat versatility has been eroded since then, of course, since opponents have found some method in his maverick moves. However, the memory endures that he reserves his best for the games that matter and that Mike McCarthy's men have been powerless to counter his ability on the ground and in the air.

That said, the Packers are getting closer to rubbing those Red and Gold helmets in the dirt. The one thing you can say about San Francisco's approach is that there are no dark arts involved. And McCarthy is at last unraveling their "read option" runs (as evidenced by that tight 34-28 last loss). Kaepernick takes to the scrimmage line with two or more tight ends 40% of the time, gives Anquan Boldin a special nod at receiver before checking that bulwark back, Frank Gore, is lined up behind him for the gritty gains.

In their past four games, the 49ers have averaged a healthy five per carry of 32 attempted rushing plays (almost exclusively via Gore). While the only variable with Kaepernick is if he is going to scramble and use his cut-loose pace as another avenue for their ground assault. Coach Jim Harbaugh was loath to do so at the beginning of the season, but you sense that he has used his Superman sparingly with a view to peaking for the play-offs.

Either way, with Rodgers back at the helm, we know that Green Bay have an offense to keep stride with the Niners. After weeks spent "photobombing" teammates on the sideline, Rodgers is finally back leading them on the pitch. That last-minute hook-up to Cobb breathed new life into a campaign of mediocrity and more broadly demonstrated the collective cohesion and self-belief which this mustachioed marshal brings to the squad.

Consequently, Rodgers' long lay-off is less of an issue. And while his scrambling ability will have taken a knock, at least he now has a bona fide runner in sizeable shape of Eddie Lacy to consistently carry the can. Lacy has scorched the turf for 1,178 yards and 11 touchdowns, making him a ready favourite for rookie-of-the-year honours and improving for every experience (good or bad). He hasn't fumbled the ball since that early game at Candlestick and is now managing to play through the pain of a nagging ankle injury without it limiting production.

This could be one of the coldest games ever, with temperatures at historic Lambeau Field expected to plummet to new lows and a 35% chance of snow. In such conditions, Lacy's attritional gains allied to his entire team's familiarity with surviving on the frozen tundra makes Green Bay a cracking bet. Especially in receipt of an invaluable field-goal handicap start.

San Francisco's physical defense and relentless rushing may sound suited to these Arctic wastes too, but Harbaugh's men may have been sunning themselves in the California sunshine too long. Play-off country certainly didn't look like this in the brochure. And like many a disgruntled holidaymaker before them, the Niners could be back on the plane and coming home sooner than expected.