Accuscore break down the chances of the Houston Astros claiming World Series glory on Tuesday night...
"As even as the series has been so far, it’s likely to get even closer when the stakes are at their highest. The two teams are extremely evenly matched and there’s no room for error."
World Series Game 6: Houston Astros @ Los Angeles Dodgers
Wednesday 1 November, 01:20 (BST)
After the spectacle of Game Five, which finished after the extra inning with the Astros 13-12 victory, it's hard to imagine what more there is to come. But what we do know is that we have at least one more game in the World Series.
The series has so far progressed very much as anticipated, with both teams winning one of their road games. Both of those road victories as well as the latest Astros home win saw the underdog take the spoils, so the trend after five games seems to be against the favorite. The odds, however are as close as ever.
The pitching battle is rather surprisingly favoring the Astros heading to the final game(s) of the series. What was deemed the "Achilles' heel" of the heavy hitting Astros team, has actually proven to be their backbone early in the series - not much can be said about the wild Game Five, which turned into a shooting gallery on both sides.
In Game Six, the Astros will send out their talisman ace, Justin Verlander to try and clinch the title. After being acquired late in the season from Detroit, he is 9-0 with an ERA of 1.53. Houston haven't lost a single game in which he has appeared, either starting or relieving. Verlander started in their Game Two win as well, allowing two homers in another thrilling encounter that ended 6-7 for the Astros after extra innings.
The home team will start with veteran Rich Hill, who was controversially hooked early after four innings in Game Two, after allowing only one run on three hits. He's likely to go deeper into the game this time. He posts an ERA of 2.77 in his three starts this postseason and 3.72 in seven playoff starts during his 12-year MLB career.
Game Five on Sunday saw both teams dig deep into their bullpen, depleting all available resources. It remains to be seen how much the strain of that decision affects the performances tonight, after only one day off. Both teams' heavy hitters have proven they're red, hot and ready to go so it'll likely be up for the bullpen to provide a clutch performance tonight.
Betfair Exchange odds
The Exchange currently has odds of [2.00] for backing the visiting Astros, while home team clocks in at [1.86]
In Accuscore simulations, the Dodgers, playing with their backs against the wall are 51.6 % favorites to even the series 3-3. Houston in turn then win 48.4 % of the simulations.
With odds of [1.86] for the home team, it's not yet worth taking a position. The Dodgers should only be backed when their price reaches [1.94] or better.
The same goes for Houston, who are currently valued on the Exchange at a maximum of [2.00]. With the simulated winning percentage of 48.4%, they should only be backed when their odds reach [2.07].
Despite the high stakes and excellent starters, according to the simulations both teams should manage to score plenty. They indicate an even score of 4.9 for each team, the Dodgers receive a tiny, 0.03 run edge.
Both of the starters have a relatively low chance of a quality start: LA's Hill at 35 % and Houston's Verlander at 30 %. With both starters pitching for five 1/3 innings, they should allow three runs each. The difference then, once again, is with the bullpen and their respective closers - and this is where the Dodgers gain their 0.03 run advantage.
The batters on both teams have really found their stride and have already blasted a record breaking 22 home runs in the five World Series games to date. The trend is likely to continue in Game Six, with the Dodgers' Cody Bellinger hitting a home run with 33 % probability and Astros' George Springer following suit with 21%.
The most productive batters though, based on simulated hits + walks + RBI's, are the Dodgers' Justin Turner with 2.46 and Astros' Carlos Correa with 2.45 on average.
As even as the series has been so far, it's likely to get even closer when the stakes are at their highest. The two teams are extremely evenly matched and there's no room for error.
With the current odds there's no value based on simulations, but any swings either way could be exploited. It is marginally more likely to head for Game Seven than be decided tonight.
World Series Winner - Game Seven
In case the Dodgers manage to back off the ledge tonight, we're headed for Game Seven tomorrow. The likely starters, regardless of tonight's game are Yu Darvish for the Dodgers and Lance McCullers for Houston. McCullers recorded a win in his previous start - Astros victory in Game Three - as Darvish took the loss after lasting only 1.2 innings.
The simulations put LA as quite heavy favorites in Game Seven, with 59.7 % chance to accomplish the comeback.
The Exchange presents World Series winner's odds at the moment heavily in favor, of course, of the Astros: Houston can be backed at [1.41] while Dodgers are at [3.00].
According to simulations, the Dodgers still have approx. 30% chance to win it all, which would make odds of around [3.33] worth consideration.