Jasmine Baba returns again for more Wednesday night MLB bets, starting with a tasty interleague match-up between East leaders.
"However, even though starting pitcher Luis Severino has a 3.32 ERA for the season and 17 wins against six losses, his form is no where near what it should be. He's 4.86 for his six August starts and has a 5.61 ERA since July 1"
Have to be Brave
British followers of the MLB are in for a treat as the American League East and National League East leaders go head-to-head in a lovely 17:10 game. World Series favourite Boston Red Sox have ultimately dominated this regular season with a .686 PCT, 8.5 games ahead of their rivals the Yankees and are looking strong as we get the final 20 or so games out of the way. No wonder they're [4.4] to win the whole thing.
However, the Atlanta Braves have been the rising star of this year's highly competitive National League. Already surpassing their 72 wins from last year, they're on top of the NL East with 76 wins, three games in front of the Philadelphia Phillies (who were also terrible last season).
Coming into this game the stats don't look particularly good for the Braves; they've already lost this series and the previous series to the Red Sox. However Mike Foltynewicz comes back into Atlanta's rotation with an ERA of 2.80 and a form of 2.68 in the last seven.
Compared to Boston's starting pitcher Hector Velazquez who has a 3.91 ERA in his six starts, it could be a way for Atlanta and their bats to claw back and keep their three game cushion ahead of the Phillies.
I wouldn't be surprised the Red Sox get complacent and drop this game, especially with someone as experienced Foltynewicz as starting for the home side. Laying Boston at [2.2] seems the way to go for me.
Form makes it harder than it should be
Last night's 11-1 routing of Chicago by Milwaukee should be a wake-up call. As I mentioned before, the National League is stacked and the NL Central is no different. The Brewers have cut the Cubs' lead to three games winning this series, and are threatening to cut it to two if they sweep them tonight.
Let's look at the starting pitchers, Chicago's Jose Quintana is coming in this with poor form but has a good record against the Brewers (2-1 with a 2.63 ERA, holding the opposition's batting to .181 BA) whereas Milwaukee's Jhoulys Chacin was terrible at the beginning of August but is now 4-1 with a 2.01 ERA. There's not much in between the two.
Trying to pick out anything in this one is giving me a headache.
It should be closer than last night, especially if the two starting pitchers are continuing their form, so the Either Team Win By 1 Run or Less at 21/10 seems like a shout, seeing as the first game of the series finished 4-3. [2.02] for Under 8.5 on the exchange is also good value, if both pitchers have been on form.
Expect a big run line
Both teams are occupying the American League wild card spots, and although New York are better off (a record of 87-52 should be division leading, but unlucky for them Boston is 96-44), Oakland can still be reached in the wild card standings and also still win AL West. Their aim should be to win the division as they're only 3.5 games behind Houston. That way even if they not finish out on top, they'll still make the post-season.
Judging on winning records and batting teams alone you'd want to back the Yankees and at 3/5, the market heavily backs this. However, even though starting pitcher Luis Severino has a 3.32 ERA for the season and 17 wins against six losses, his form is no where near what it should be.
He's 4.86 for his six August starts and has a 5.61 ERA since July 1. Should he somehow do well, New York's relievers are still shaky and with reliever Aroldis Chapman out, with what possibly could be a season-ending injury, the price is just too short for me.
A's pitcher Mike Fiers is also looking a bit shoddy, allowing five runs in 3 2/3 innings in his last outing. This could be a very interesting game for the fans who like runs rather than a pitcher duel. Over +7.5 in Total Runs at evens is more than attractive.
And when pitchers' arms give up, then comes the fun in the To Hit a Home Run market. New York's Aaron Hicks has a batting average of .600 and two home runs in five at bats against Mike Fiers and if I'm backing home run leaders I'll probably have to back Giancarlo Stanton too (one homer in eight at bats). You can back Hicks at 4/1 and Stanton at 12/5.
Just in case, I'll back Oakland Athletics +1.5/Over 7.5+ in the Run Line / Total Runs Double market at 3/1 too.
Lay Boston Red Sox (@ Atlanta Braves) @ [2.2]
Back Either Team Win By 1 Run or Less in Milwaukee Brewers @ Chicago Cubs @ 21/10
Back Over +7.5 in Total Runs in New York Yankees @ Oakland A's @ EVS
Back Aaron Hicks To Hit a Home Run (@ Oakland A's) @ 4/1
Back Giancarlo Stanton To Hit a Home Run (@ Oakland A's) @ 12/5
Back Oakland Athletics +1.5/Over 7.5+ @ 3/1