Almost inevitably the World Series has gone to a decisive Game 7, and with the Dodgers having home advantage the team at AccuScore believe they'll be the ones celebrating in the early hours...
"The Dodgers have been impeccable at home, despite losing Game 2, and must be considered strong favourites tonight."
World Series Game 7: Houston Astros @ Los Angeles Dodgers
Thursday 2 November, 01:20 (GMT)
As expected, the Fall Classic is once again going the distance and we're facing the legendary game seven of the World Series.
The Dodgers cleared the first do-or-die situation by overcoming Astros late in the game, winning game six 3-1. Now it's simply the case of winner takes it all. In all fairness, game seven is what these teams deserve. Both have managed to come up strong when needed and it's only fitting that it all comes down to one single game in the end.
Dodgers will start with Yu Darvish on the mound, who left a lot to be desired last time around in Game 3, despite entering the World Series with two convincing wins over Arizona and Chicago where he only allowed one run each. In Game 3 of the WS, he only lasted for 1.2 innings allowing four earned runs and six hits. His career statistics in postseason are not that great either: he is 2-3 in five starts with an ERA of 4.74 in 24.2 overall innings pitched. The 31-year-old Japanese ace faces the challenge of a lifetime, looking for a bounce back.
The Astros go with Lance McCullers, who was the hero of Game 3 despite allowing all of Dodgers three runs in Astros 5-3 victory. It's the third start of the postseason for McCullers, after a 6.0 innings no-decision vs the Yankees and Game 3 of the WS. He is 1-0 with an ERA of 2.95 in 18.1 innings, 7.0 of which have been from the bullpen.
The bullpens will be once again in decisive role with the starting pitchers equally matched. It is an all-in situations, so we are likely to see some starters getting a call from the bullpen if need be. Overall the pitching department is still better at the home team's dugout.
Betfair betting exchange currently posts odds of [2.44] for backing the visiting Astros, while home team receives odds of [1.66].
In Accuscore simulations the home team is clear favorite to win the decisive game seven. Dodgers win 60.1 % of the simulations, while Astros are left with 39.9 %.
While the odds currently present only marginal value for the Dodgers, it's likely the offers will move one way or another, as they have before all the six previous games. Keep an eye out if the offers get better; everything above [1.70] for the Dodgers presents good value as does over [2.50] for the Astros.
In simulations, Dodgers starter Darvish is more likely to have a quality start than McCullers of the Astros. Darvish' probability is 41 %, while McCullers' is only 29 %. It's also Darvish who is more likely to win the pitching battle with 0.2 less runs allowed. The relievers present even stronger edge for the Dodgers, allowing only 1.6 runs, while Astros bullpen allows 2.0. In simulations, Dodgers score on average 5.1 runs and Astros are held to 4.4.
The most productive players according to the simulations are once again Dodgers' Justin Turner with 2.6 hits+walks+RBI rating and Astros' Jose Altuve with a rating of 2.3. However, Dodgers' Cody Bellinger is the most likely to hit a homerun with 30 % probability.
The legendary game seven is always unpredictable, but it seems that there's a clear edge for the home team. The Dodgers have been impeccable at home, despite losing Game 2, and must be considered strong favourites tonight. It's likely to come down to the bullpens, which is stronger in the home team's side. Astros heavy hitters somewhat struggled last night and are likely to have problems tonight as well.
As long as the game is low-scoring, it's Dodgers all the way!