The San Diego Padres host Arizona Diamondbacks in Thursday's early offering of MLB action, and the team at AccuScore believe an away win offers huge value...
"We're expecting a clear road victory and there's great value in backing the visitors!"
Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Diego Padres
Thursday, 02:10 (BST)
The battle for National League wild card rages on as the Diamondbacks try to halt their skid against Padres. Arizona have their hands on the first wild card seed, with a record of 87-65 and 10 games remaining. They're chased by Milwaukee Brewers, with 81 wins and 11 games left. Needless to say, the Diamondbacks need to get back on track as the Brewers are closing in with 10 wins in their last 15. The hosting Padres are out of the playoff race already, but have won two first games of the three-game stand against the Diamondbacks.
Despite somewhat struggling lately with three consecutive losses, the Diamondbacks are a lot stronger team than the Padres. They're ninth in the MLB in runs per game with 4.88, while the Padres are dead last with 3.79. The Diamondbacks are also defensively way ahead, with 3.97 runs allowed per game, making them 3rd best team in the whole league. Padres, on the other hand are 22nd with 4.95 allowed runs on average.
Tonight's starting pitchers are Robbie Ray for the Diamondbacks and Dinelson Lamet for Padres. Up-and-coming ace Ray has had a brilliant season so far and is 14-5 with an ERA of 2.74. He has won five of his last starts and posts an excellent ERA of 1.39 in those games, with 32 1/3 innings played. Ray has started 25 games, 16 of those quality starts.
Lamet, a promising rookie, has had a decent season. He has started 19 games with 10 quality starts and a record of 7-7. While his team hasn't provided much help, Lamet's ERA is 4.15 and avg. against excellent .205. He has allowed two or less runs in each of his four last starts and has improved as the season progressed.
With the ace Ray in impeccable form, it's unlikely that Padres are able to score enough to help Lamet to grab another win. Diamondbacks batters have struggled in the past couple of games, but are ready to bounce back at any moment.
Current market in Betfair betting exchange favors the visitors, with odds of [1.74] for backing the Diamondbacks to win. The hosting Padres are priced at [2.28]. According to Accuscore's simulations, the visiting Arizona Diamondbacks are heavily undervalued and should receive odds of [1.52].
In Accuscore simulations, Arizona Diamondbacks are heavy favorites, winning 65.6% of the simulations, while the hosting Padres have 34.4% chance to win.
Value bets should be placed for the visiting Diamondbacks when the odds reach [1.52] and for the hosting Padres with odds of [2.91] or better.
The starting pitcher battle goes for Arizona, as Ray is likelier to have a quality start and allow on average 0.9 less runs in 5.5 innings than his Padres counterpart Lamet. The relieving pitchers have similar numbers as the starters: according to simulations Padres bullpen allows on average 2.3 runs, while the Diamondbacks keep it at 1.3 on average. In the simulations, Diamondbacks score 5.5 runs and Padres only 3.6.
At bat Arizona is miles ahead of the Padres. Diamondbacks average 1.38 home runs in the simulations, while Padres only manage 0.77. In the line-up Diamondbacks have at least five players hitting 0.7 or more runs per game. Padres' best hitters Jose Pirela and Wil Myers only manage to score ~0.6 on average.
All indicators point at Arizona Diamondbacks win, despite their three-game losing streak. The pitching battle is won by Ray and the D'backs bullpen is also better than that of Padres. The biggest difference is at bat, where Arizona is top of the class and Padres at the bottom. We're expecting a clear road victory and there's great value in backing the visitors!