The team at AccuScore return to seek out some value in Major League Baseball, and tonight they are firmly focused on a Miami Marlins win away to San Francisco Giants...
"The current market in Betfair betting exchange offers excellent value in backing the Marlins road win, with odds of [1.93] (51.81%) on the Moneyline."
Miami Marlins @ San Francisco Giants
Saturday 8 July, 03:15 (BST)
The MLB regular season has hit its half-way point, with the all-star break looming next week. Even if the top teams seem to be running away fast, there's still plenty of time to turn the season around for the strugglers - but there's a lot of catching up to do.
One of the teams looking for a second half revival is Miami Marlins who visit San Francisco Giants tonight. Marlins started the season with a blast, but have since succumbed to mediocre record of 38-46, which pits them already 12 wins behind the last wild-card spot. Their hosts tonight, the Giants, have done even worse, standing second to last in the National League with a 34-53 record.
Tonight's starters are Dan Straily for the Marlins and Matt Moore for the Giants. Straily boasts a record of 6-4 in 17 starts, with an ERA of 3.51 and remarkably good batting average against, 0.215. Moore on the other hand has somewhat struggled. Giants' starter is 3-8 in 17 starts, with an ERA of 5.78 and a batting average against at 0.293.
Offensively Marlins have a definite edge over the Giants. Miami has scored 6th most runs per game on the road with 4.93, while San Francisco are dead last in runs scored per game at home with 3.45. Marlins have four players in their lineup, who have hit the 50-run marker already, while Giants have none.
The current market in Betfair betting exchange offers excellent value in backing the Marlins road win, with odds of [1.93] (51.81%) on the Moneyline. It would be good to keep eye on the run line market for Giants +1.5. That would create a reasonable value as well before the start of the game.
In Accuscore simulations, Miami Marlins will win with 55% probability. They score on average 4.6 runs, while Giants are held to 3.8. Value bets should be placed for Miami when the odds reach [1.82] and for San Francisco with the odds greater than [2.22]. In the simulations, both starters have approx. 44% chance of a quality start.
At bat, Giants rely heavily on trio Buster Posey, Brandon Belt and Denard Span, who all are likely to record more than 1 hit and score >0.5 runs. Miami has deeper scoring potential, with Dee Gordon, Giancarlo Stanton, Christian Yelich, Marcel Ozuna and Justin Bour all with more than 1 hit and >0.5 runs. Stanton has a 30% of hitting a home run, while Brandon Belt leads the Giants with 17%.
On the mound, the starters Straily and Moore are likely to have very similar starts. Straily allows 5.6 hits with 2.4 runs and Moore 6.3 hits with 2.8 runs. Marlins' relievers allow 3.2 hits with 1.4 runs, while Giants' relievers allow 3.7 hits with 1.7 runs.
The most likely result is 5-4 for the Marlins.