The Detroit Tigers travel to Colorado this evening to face a Rockies team fighting hard to keep their wildcard spot, and our friends at AccuScore believe the home side look a solid proposition to get the victory...
"In the scoring department, Rockies take the game by storm. The top of their lineup is packed with power."
Detroit Tigers @ Colorado Rockies
Wednesday 30 August, 20:10
Colorado Rockies and Detroit Tigers look to finish off their interleague three-game-series. It's all tied up with Tigers claiming victory in the first outing 3-4 and then the home team bouncing back to even it up with a 7-3 win.
The Rockies are fighting tooth and nail to keep their wild card spot in the National League race to post-season. They are 72-60 and have a leeway of four wins before the chasing Milwaukee Brewers. NL West is at the moment the toughest division in MLB and 14 of Rockies remaining 30 games will be played against the other two top seeds of the division, namely Arizona Diamondbacks and league leading Dodgers. Needless to say, any game against a much inferior opponent is a must win situation.
Detroit Tigers have seen better days and are long gone from the playoff-race, sitting next to last in American League with a record of 57-74. There's not much left to play for and the Tigers have shown it by going worst-in-MLB record 8-17 in their past 25 games. At home, they've been decent with close to .500 mark but on the road they've struggled mightily.
The Rockies are an excellent home team, standing at .600 mark with 39-26 record. They are going to send out Chad Bettis, who is regaining his form and consistency after returning from cancer treatment. Bettis has only three starts under his belt, but two of those have been quality and he posts an ERA of 3.79 in 19 innings pitched. He threw three scoreless innings before exiting his last start and seemed to have found his stride.
The visiting Tigers go with veteran household name Justin Verlander, who has once again held his own despite the team collapsing around him. He is 9-8 with a stellar 3.90 ERA in 27 starts. It's obvious Verlander has not received much in terms of support, neither from the bullpen nor offense.
While the pitching battle might tilt a bit towards Verlander and the Tigers, everything else points at Rockies. They're in top-3 of MLB in every batting & scoring category, except for home runs - which will not come easy against Verlander anyway. At home they've scored 6.11 runs on average vs Tigers 4.16 on the road.
Defensively Tigers are second to last in team ERA with 5.12, conceding second most runs in MLB with 5.31 on average. Even if Colorado are not the most defensively sound team with 4.75 allowed runs on average, they have the edge over Tigers in both offense and defense.
Current market in Betfair betting exchange favours the home team slightly, with odds of [1.86] for backing the Rockies to win. According to Accuscore's simulations, the Rockies are underestimated and should be valued with odds of [1.64].
In Accuscore simulations, Colorado Rockies are clear winners with 61.00% probability, while Tigers win 39.00% of the simulations. Value bets should be placed for Rockies when the odds reach [1.64] and for the visiting Detroit Tigers with odds of [2.57] or better.
According to simulations, there will be plenty of scoring at Coors Field tonight. The home team blasts over six runs, averaging 6.3 in all the simulations. Visitors are not too far behind with an average of 5.0. While Justin Verlander allows on average 3.6 runs, it is finally up to Tigers bullpen to lose the game allowing 2.7 runs as opposed to Rockies relievers who only allow 2.0.
Despite playing mile-high in Denver, there's a relatively low amount of home runs scored. The hosts average 1.34 home runs, most likely from Nolan Arenado with 0.31 on average. For the visitors, it's a slim chance as they average 1.04 only. If they do hit a homer, it's most likely Justin Upton or Mikie Mahtook, with an average of 0.2.
In the scoring department, Rockies take the game by storm. The top of their lineup is packed with power: Charlie Blackmon, DJ LeMahieu, Nolan Arenado and Gerardo Parra are all scoring more than 0.75 runs on average. No Detroit player reaches the average of 0.75, closest being Justin Upton and Ian Kinsler with 0.73.
Despite Justin Verlander's heroics as a starter for Detroit, eventually it is the home team Rockies who'll prevail. They have enough batting power to cause problems to Tigers bullpen, while Rockies defense is likely to be able to hold the visitors in lower numbers.