The Lakers season is over, while the Jazz have hit the easier part of their schedule and are looking to climb the playoff seedings. It can only go one way, right? Mark Kirwan previews tonight's NBA games...
"It’s over a fortnight since the Jazz played a team that’s going to be in the playoffs. In their closing eight games they’ll face three postseason contenders, Charlotte, Denver and the Clippers. That means they’ll have played 13 teams whose seasons are already over in their final 17 games. The Lakers ought not to have been one of those, but here we are."
Jazz tuning up
LA Lakers @ Utah Jazz
Thursday, 02:30
Live on Sky Sports Main Event, Arena
The Lakers are the latest makeweights to take on the Jazz. Their recent run is payback for the tough start to the season they had to face - they were thought by many to have been dealt the hardest pre-Christmas schedule by a distance.
They're getting the chance to put that right now. It's over a fortnight since the Jazz played a team that's going to be in the playoffs. In their closing eight games they'll face three postseason contenders, Charlotte, Denver and the Clippers. That means they'll have played 13 teams whose seasons are already over in their final 17 games.
The Lakers ought not to have been one of those, but here we are. It really didn't look like they would be before Christmas, but the longest injury absence of LeBron's career, the fallout from the Anthony Davis attempted trade, and a series of further knocks to the supporting cast around James has seen them muddle through a desperate 2019 campaign.
They're 5-16 in their last 21 games. There are murmurs that maybe the James move wasn't the best idea. At 34, his time at the top is limited. They haven't secured the Dwayne Wade sidekick - James' age is the primary reason they threw everything and the kitchen sink at the Pelicans for Davis - and if they can't secure one of the high-profile free agents this summer it starts to look like the move out West could mean the game's best player squanders his final years with mediocre teams.
Their playoff hopes are mathematically done for now. They've covered just three times in 15 efforts as their season has petered out. That means I'd consider the home team to cover as they blew out the Phoenix Suns in their last game by 33 points, but I'd rather go for the under here on 216.5 at 10/11. The Lakers played last night, and have hit the total just once in eleven efforts this season when they played the previous night.
Thunder rumbled
Indiana Pacers @ Oklahoma City Thunder
Thursday, 00:00
Live on Betfair Video
What's happened to the Thunder? Around the All-Star break, they looked like a real challenger to the Warriors. Paul George was being talked about as a third challenger to James Harden and Giannis in the MVP race, and with Russell Westbrook alongside him and his scoring potential, there was a great chance the franchise could make their first run to the Finals since 2012.
Well, it's probably safe to forget all that now. They've gone 5-11 since the break in the season. George's form has tanked. Since then, they are six points worse per-100-possessions than they were before when George is on the floor. They're still better when he plays than not, but those numbers have seen them sink from probable third seeds to eighth.
If the Kings weren't so far back, or the Lakers hadn't imploded, they'd be at risk of missing the postseason altogether. One problem for them has been the schedule. They've endured an imposing run of games, a consequence of being in the Western Conference. If tonight's opponents, the Pacers, had to face the same, they'd probably be struggling for their 2019 lives too.
But they haven't, so they're not. They have hit a pretty tepid run of form though. They've five wins in their last 14 games. They did demolish the Nuggets on Sunday night, though maybe Denver, as their coach Mike Malone suggested afterwards, just decided to take the night off having on three road games on the bounce.
The Thunder shipped an embarrassing loss to the Grizzlies in their last game. You would expect a reaction. Is it enough to cover the six-point advantage Indiana are being given in this on the handicap? I'd think so. Westbrook and George have pride, and the incentive to avoid the eighth seed can't be underestimated with the Warriors your likely opponent.
Warriors waiting for playoffs
Golden State Warriors @ Memphis Grizzlies
Thursday, 00:00
Live on Betfair Video
Are we there yet? Warriors games over the last few weeks have taken on the feeling of a very long, boring drive. With their playoff berth ever in doubt, and the question of seeding not very significant given the relatively equal strength of all possible first round-opponents - see OKC's slide referenced above - there's really been little to play for in these games closing out the season.
With the scoring talent they have, the switch could flip on any night, but their recent run of games hasn't seen them at their very best. They're 6-14 against the spread in their last 20 games and have lost plenty of games as very heavy favourites. Against Phoenix, for instance, they were -17 and didn't get the win.
For a team that set the regular season record a few years back only to lose in the Finals, it's understandable if they're just going through the motions now. You get the impression the Warriors are just happy enough getting their wins over weaker teams and moving on.
Which is handy for us tonight as they face a Memphis team that's made a habit of defying expectations in recent weeks. They were supposed to tank completely after trading Marc Gasol, and have an injury list longer than the Mueller Report, but they've covered in eight of their last 11 games despite fielding a line-up of draft busts and walk-ons in recent games.
Mike Conley could be fit tonight. That should help the ragtag bunch to continue their strong handicap run and cover with the 11.5 head-start at 10/11.