James Harden bounced back with 28 points and 12 assists in Game 4 to level the series at 2-2, and so the scene shifts to San Antonio for a pivotal Game 5. San Antonio's regular season record gives the Spurs a vital advantage with two home games in what is effectively a best-of-three series now. However, a defeat in Game 5, and the Spurs likely will not even face a Game 7 to utilise their home court advantage.
San Antonio's French point guard Tony Parker was ruled out for the postseason due to a ruptured quadricep tendon that required surgery earlier in the series and now Houston's Brazilian center Nene Hilario has followed suit with a season-ending thigh injury. This means the Rockets will likely go with smaller lineups, while Spurs will continue to increase backup point guard Patty Mills' minutes for the remainder of the series. Even if Dejonte Murray gets the starts for San Antonio, expect Mills to play the bulk of the minutes - especially at the end of games.
Betfair's moneyline odds offer San Antonio at [1.45] and Houston at [3.1]. With a -5.5 points handicap, the Spurs pay out [2.0], while the Rockets pay at even money. The Total Points line is set at 214.5 with the Over paying out [1.98] and the Under paying out [1.97].
AccuScore Odds Analysis
AccuScore projects the Spurs to win 69.4% of their 10,000 simulations, which doesn't offer notable value on the moneyline odds. There is a slight bit of value projected on the -5.5 points handicap with San Antonio winning by six or more points in 52.3% of the time. However, the biggest value bet for Game 5 is on the Total Points, as AccuScore's value model projects the under to occur 57.5% of the time, but odds of nearly even money available on the Betfair Exchange.
Back under 214.5 points @ [1.97]