San Antonio @ Houston: Rockets strong favourites but Spurs offer value

Will San Antonio Spurs keep the series alive with a shock win over Houston Rockets?
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It's a must win game for the Houston Rockets if they want to keep the series alive, and trailing the San Antonio Spurs 3-2 they go into Game 6 as strong favourites. But the team at AccuScore believe there's value in punting the outsiders...

"However, Spurs' has over 40% chance to clinch the series at this game, that is good value when comparing to odds of [3.75]."

San Antonio Spurs @ Houston Rockets
Game 6, Friday 01:00 (UK Time)
Live on BT Sport & Betfair Live Video

Thirty-nine year-old Manu Ginobili dunked as a precursor to his game-winning block on James Harden at the end of overtime. Ginobili turned back time, as the San Antonio Spurs survived against the Houston Rockets in Game 5 to take a pivotal 3-2 lead in the series, but with Kawhi Leonard unable to finish the game due to an ankle injury and being listed as "questionable" for Game 6 in Houston, the Spurs come in as big Game 6 underdogs.

Obviously, San Antonio would rather wrap up the series and move onto the Conference Finals against the Golden State Warriors, but Harden has been relentless throughout the play-offs. In Game 4, he notched 33 points, 10 rebounds and 10 assists for yet another triple-double. His nine turnovers and 4/15 shooting from beyond the three-point line, though, left room for improvement. In Game 6, it's win or go on vacation for Harden and the Rockets, so they'll need to play better to force a Game 7.

Betfair odds

On the Moneyline, San Antonio is paying out at [3.75], while Houston is trading at [1.35]. The Rockets are expected to win and force a Game 7, so the handicap odds list the Rockets -7.5 at [2.04] and San Antonio +7.5 at [1.94]. In terms of Total Points, Betfair's line is 214.5, with Over available to back at around [2.1] and Under trading at around [1.9].

AccuScore Odds Value Analysis

Accuscore simulations give a clear advantage to Houston to win this game with 59.5% probability. However, Spurs' has over 40% chance to clinch the series at this game, that is good value when comparing to odds of [3.75]. This converts to a good 58.7% probability for Spurs to cover +7.5 handicap.

Total Points in Accuscore predictions are basically the same as what Betfair offers with the line of 214.5.

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