Golden State Warriors are heavy favourites to win at home to San Antonio Spurs in Game 1, but our friends at AccuScore believe there is some value in wagering on the Total Points line...
"The best value bet for this game, however, seems to be the 210.5 total points line. According to AccuScore's model, there is a 56.9% chance that the game goes Under this points line."
San Antonio Spurs @ Golden State Warriors
Game 1, Sunday 20:35 (UK Time)
Live on BT Sport & Betfair Live Video
The Golden State Warriors have yet to lose a game in the 2017 NBA Playoffs and remain heavy favourites to win the NBA Championship, but the San Antonio Spurs should provide the Warriors their first challenge of the post season.
That said, San Antonio is not expected to win this series and stealing Game 1 on the road would provide a welcome surprise for the neutral.
Considering Spurs' forward Kawhi Leonard sat out Game 6 in Houston due to an ankle injury and veteran point guard Tony Parker is out for the remainder of the year, San Antonio comes into the series as big long shots. In contrast, the Warriors are healthy and well rested entering the Western Conference Finals.
Betfair sets its Total Points line at 210.5 points offering [2.14] for the Under and [1.82] for the Over. In the Handicap Market, San Antonio is +10.5 at [1.88], while the Warriors are -10.5 at [2.12]. Obviously, Golden State is a heavy favourite on the Moneyline at [1.18], and the Spurs are massive Moneyline long shots at [6.0].
AccuScore Odds Analysis
Even at -10.5 points, AccuScore's 10,000 simulation analysis concludes that there is a 56.7% chance that the Warriors win by 10 or more points, so it is more likely than not that Golden State wins big in Game 1.
The best value bet for this game, however, seems to be the 210.5 total points line. According to AccuScore's model, there is a 56.9% chance that the game goes Under this points line.