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Golden State Warriors @ San Antonio Spurs: Game 4 offers value on the hosts

Can San Antonio Spurs get back in the series in Game 4 v Golden State Warriors?
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Golden State lead the series 3-0 and can complete a sweep with a victory over San Antonio in tonight's Game 4, but the team at AccuScore believe there is some value in backing the hosts to at long odds...


"Based on the current odds, there's about 14% value on picking the Spurs on the Moneyline, which is significant and almost identical to the value placed on the Celtics in Game 3. In all, AccuScore's model calculates San Antonio to have a 26.1% chance of winning Game 4."

Golden State Warriors @ San Antonio Spurs
Game 4, Tuesday 01:30 (UK Time)
Live on BT Sport & Betfair Live Video


After the Boston Celtics shocked the Cleveland Cavaliers without their best player available to play in Game 3, can the San Antonio Spurs do the same in Game 4 and avoid a sweep? Kawhi Leonard is likely to be out for Game 4 with an ankle injury sustained on a controversial play in Game 1, and the MVP candidate's loss has effectively killed off this series.

The Golden State Warriors, though, don't seem to mind all that much. Even with Zaza Pachulia and Andre Iguodala fighting off little nagging injuries for the Warriors, the Spurs' depleted roster is simply no match for the Warriors' super team with a core of Stephen Curry, Kevin Durant, Draymond Green and Klay Thompson. Game 4 could and should provide a quick and clean death for the Spurs.


Betfair Odds


The Warriors are available to back at [1.12] on the Moneyline, and the Spurs face long odds of [8.6] to win straight up. At home and in an elimination game, the Handicap market offers San Antonio +7.5 at [2.42]. Meanwhile. The Warriors-7.5 is paying out [1.36]. The Total Points line is 212.5 with alternative lines at 202.5 and 222.5.


AccuScore Odds Analysis


AccuScore projected value on the Celtics winning in Game 3 and likewise, projects value on San Antonio winning in Game 4. Based on the current odds, there's about 14% value on picking the Spurs on the Moneyline, which is significant and almost identical to the value placed on the Celtics in Game 3. In all, AccuScore's model calculates San Antonio to have a 26.1% chance of winning Game 4.

In terms of the handicap market, though, the Warriors won by 8 or more points in 55.2% of simulations. Based on the payouts, though, there isn't significant value on taking the Warriors or the Spurs in the handicap market. Finally, the computer likes the Under 212.5 Total Points, as 53.2% of the 10,000 simulations finished with 212 or fewer total points.


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