Golden State lead 2-0 in the NBA Finals, but with home advantage the team at AccuScore, who have been correct with every prediction to this point, believe the value lies with the Cavaliers to get back into the series by winning Game 3...
"AccuScore agrees that Golden State should be the favourite and calculates the Warriors' win probability at 54.9%, but the side value bet based on the odds is to back Cleveland at [2.48].
Golden State Warriors @ Cleveland Cavaliers
Game 3, Thursday 02:05 (UK Time)
Live on BT Sport & Betfair Live Video
Game 3 of the NBA Finals is pivotal. If the Warriors win and go 3-0 up, the series would essentially be over, as no team has blown a 3-0 lead in the NBA Playoffs, let alone the NBA Finals. If the Cleveland Cavaliers bounce back and win Game 3, however, there's hope that this could be a series yet.
Prior to the start of the series, AccuScore projected that the Warriors would win in 5 games, which still leaves enough room for one win for Cleveland, and if a win is going to come, it would expect to arrive in either Game 3 or Game 4. Thus far, however, the Warriors have been the far better team and the second halves of both Game 1 and Game 2 led to unbalanced, one-sided blowout contests.
Can a bit of hometown cooking (and refereeing) make this a competitive series?
Even with the Cavs back home, Betfair's Moneyline market is offering Cleveland at [2.48], while you can back the Warriors at [1.69]. The handicap market lists Cleveland +3.5 at [1.92], and the Total Points line is 225.5 points.
AccuScore Odds Analysis
Thus far, AccuScore has been perfect on all picks in every market for the NBA Finals. The computer is 8-0 on moneyline, handicap, side value and total points picks for Games 1 and 2. So, what is the best value bet for Game 3?
AccuScore agrees that Golden State should be the favourite and calculates the Warriors' win probability at 54.9%, but the side value bet based on the odds is to back Cleveland at [2.48]. Also, the Cavs are the computer's pick in the handicap market.