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Cleveland Cavs @ Boston Celtics: Home court advantage makes underdogs the value

They're underdogs but AccuScore are predicting a win for Boston tonight
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It's the first game of the Eastern Conference Finals and the Cavs are fancied to get the better of Boston, but our analysts are going against the market with their tips...

"AccuScore likes Boston to win Game 1 at home with 54.7% confidence on the Celtics in the moneyline market."

The Boston Celtics took seven games to get past the Washington Wizards to finally arrive in the Eastern Conference Finals where they will face a well-rested Cleveland Cavaliers team that swept through its first two rounds. Added to all that, the Celtics are tasked with winning two home games to start the series. While Boston has the home court advantage and played well in front of their own fans against Washington, this is a daunting task against LeBron James and the Cavaliers.

The defending champions have been superbly led by LeBron, who is simply playing on an elevated level. James is averaging 34.4 points, 9.0 rebounds and 7.1 assists, along with 2.1 steals and 1.5 blocks during the playoffs. Also, he's shooting a superhuman 46.8% from beyond the three-point line during the postseason, which would have placed James as the best three-point shooter in the NBA during the regular season ahead of Kyle Korver's 45.1%. Basically, James is dominating, and the Celtics will need to find an answer in a hurry.


Betfair Odds

On the moneyline, Betfair lists the Cavaliers at [1.56] and the Celtics at [2.68]. Clearly, the Celtics are underdogs, and the handicap market lists the Celtics +2.5 at [1.97]. Finally, Betfair's Total Points line is 219.5.


AccuScore Model Odds Analysis

Despite the lack of rest and the emotional toll of Game 7, AccuScore likes Boston to win Game 1 at home with 54.7% confidence on the Celtics in the moneyline market. While the Cavs have been an offensive juggernaut in the postseason, AccuScore projects 59.1% confidence on the game finishing under the Total Points line.

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