Accuscore take a look at three intriguing NBA clashes taking place this weekend, applying their figures to the Betfair markets to select the best bets..
"When it comes to the -5.5 points handicap, the Jazz win by six or more points in 57.7% of simulations, which suggests that this is the best value pick for Game 6."
Wizards at Hawks: Game 6
The Washington Wizards head back to Philips Arena in Atlanta for Game 6 of their best-of-seven series, and John Wall and the Wizards are looking for their first road win of the playoffs. Thus far, Atlanta has picked up its game in both home games and, with elimination staring them in the face, the Hawks will look to pull out another home victory and push the series to seven games.
Betfair Odds: The Wizards are 13/10 to win on the moneyline, while the Hawks are 4/6 to win without any handicap. Betfair does offer a +3 handicap at 10/11 for the Wizards. Conversely, the Hawks pay out 10/11 for -3 points handicap. The total points line is 210, with over paying out 20/21 and the under paying out 9/10.
AccuScore Odds Analysis: Based on thousands of game and individual player simulations, Accuscore predicts will Atlanta to this tight game with 54% probability. This doesn't have any value but, when we compare Wizards win probability of 46% to Betfair odds, there is value for a bet. With +3 handicap, Accuscore calculates that Washington has a 52.7% chance of covering it. Totals probability doesn't differ from Betfair at all, so there is no value for betting.
Celtics at Bulls: Game 6
The Boston Celtics lost their first two home games of the 2017 NBA Playoffs, with former Celtics point guard Rajan Rondo running the show for the Chicago Bulls. After the Bulls went up 2-0 in the series and looked like they might even sweep the number one team in the Eastern Conference, Rondo broke his thumb and had to sit out the next three games. The Bulls promptly lost all three games and now head back to Chicago for a do-or-die Game 6 that could see Rondo back handling the basketball with a broken thumb as Chicago gets desperate.
Betfair odds: On the moneyline, the Bulls are 4/5 and the Celtics are 21/20, which means this game is almost even. Betfair offers a +0.5 handicap for the Bulls at 9/10. Conversely, the Celtics pay out 20/21 for -0.5 points handicap. The total points line is 204.5, with the OVER paying out 10/11 and the UNDER also paying out 10/11.
AccuScore Odds Analysis: From the start, Accuscore have predicted that the Celtics will win this series. The Celtics is 56.3% favourite to clinch the series in this next game. Betfair odds follow pretty well these numbers, so bettors don't find a great value in this moneyline market. Point spread is the more interesting market. As the handicap is currently standing at +0.5 for the Bulls, the probability for Celtics to cover this is basically the same as their chance to win game outright - 56.0%. This is good value, especially when the odds are 20/21. Accuscore's simulations show total for this game at 202.5. This gives under bets 60.3% probability to succeed.
Clippers at Jazz: Game 6
The LA Clippers face elimination on the road against the Utah Jazz despite Chris Paul's heroics. The Clippers point guard is averaging 27.0 points, 10.4 assists and 5.6 rebounds to go along with 2.0 steals per game while shooting 53.1 percent from the field and 44.0 percent from three-point land during the series. Despite all that, the Clippers are down 3-2 in the series.
Losing Blake Griffin to a toe injury doesn't help LA, and the return of Rudy Gobert from a knee injury did give a boost to Utah. Game 6 in Utah is equally a statement about the rise of Utah's young core and yet another prospective failure for the Clippers' ageing core. Is this the last season of DeAndre Jordan, Blake Griffin and Paul? Also, will Doc Rivers keep his job if the Clippers lose in the first round?
Betfair odds: The LA Clippers are 2/1 to win on the moneyline, while the Jazz are 2/5 to win straight up. Betfair offers a +5.5 handicap for the Clippers at 10/11 and conversely the Jazz pay out 10/11 for -5.5 points handicap. The total points line is 192.5, with the over paying out 9/10 and the under paying out 20/21.
AccuScore Odds Analysis:
AccuScore performed 10,000 statistically-based simulations in its mathematical model to find value against Betfair's odds, and according to the computer, Utah offers the slightest bit of value on the moneyline, as the Jazz won 72.1% of the time in the simulated environment. When it came to the -5.5 points handicap, the Jazz won by six or more points in 57.7% of simulations, which suggests that this is the best value pick for Game 6. With regards to the Total Points line of 192.5, the computer went over 50.8% of the time so, while the value is on the over, it's not exactly overwhelming considering the 9/10 payout.