The NBA Finals return to Oakland for a potential series-ending Game 5. The Cleveland Cavaliers scored an NBA Finals record number of points in the first quarter of the fourth meeting of these two teams and hit an NBA Finals record number of three-pointers for the game overall. Seemingly, everything went right for the Cavs in order to earn a win, but that game was played in Cleveland.
In Oakland, the Warriors finished the regular season 36-5 at Oracle Arena and enter Game 5 with a post-season home record of 8-0. Meanwhile, the Cavaliers finished the regular season with a 20-21 away record, but the post-season started with Cleveland winning their first seven road games. In fact, the Warriors' wins in Game 1 and Game 2 count as Cleveland's only road defeats for the playoffs.
The Cavaliers are facing long odds at [4.0] to simply extend this series and send it back to Cleveland. The handicap market offers Cleveland +9.5 at 1.76. The Total Points line is set at 230.5.
According to AccuScore, Golden State has an 84% chance of winning its second title in three years with a Game 5 win. While there is value on the moneyline, the handicap market offers the best bet at Warriors -9.5. In AccuScore's model, the Warriors win by 10 or more points at a rate of 58.5%.