Wimbledon Day Six Women's Tips: Suarez Navarro to end lucky loser Davis' journey

Spanish Tennis Player Carla Suarez Navarro
Carla Suarez Navarro should be too good for lucky loser Lauren Davis...

There are eight further women's singles matches on the schedule for Saturday at Wimbledon, and returning with his thoughts, is our tennis columnist, Dan Weston...

"CSN hasn't achieved a massive amount on grass in her career, running at barely above a 50% winrate, but her numbers aren't an absolute disaster - she's running at around 102% combined serve/return points won percentage in the last two years on the surface."

Gauff's crazy run somehow continues

There's only really one place to start here when looking at yesterday's women's matches yesterday, and that was Cori Gauff's crazy win over Polona Hercog. Obviously we picked Hercog as a decent-priced underdog yesterday, and this was a real illustration of the variance involved with sports betting.

To start with, Hercog earned eight break points in the match (compared to five for Gauff) and won six more points in the match. However, that's only the starter to the main course, where Hercog served for the match at 5-3 in the second set and had two match points in that second set, and threw away a 5-3 lead in the second set tiebreak. Not surprisingly she was matched at 1.011/100 to win. To add insult to injury, Gauff converted her only match point by breaking Hercog to win the final set, sending the media into further overdrive.

It could look like we will be opposing Gauff until she either loses or somehow wins the entire tournament, and the outright market is now looking slightly more realistic (although still utterly absurd), pricing the American at 26.025/1 to win the event. She faces Simona Halep next and I'll be looking at the numbers in detail in advance of Monday's preview.

Strycova with chances against Bertens

However, today, there's still a further eight third round matches for us to have a look at, and there's some reasonable spots, although nothing which particularly screams out that the market is massively wrong with its pricing.

Firstly, Barbora Strycova looks a little under-rated by the market at 2.767/4 against Kiki Bertens, who struggled past Taylor Townsend on Thursday. The Czech veteran has an excellent grass pedigree, winning two-thirds of her matches across the last three seasons and it wouldn't surprise me at all if she eliminated Bertens today.

Grass-loving Riske underdog against Bencic

Another player with undoubted grass pedigree is Alison Riske, and I think the American is in a similar position for her meeting with Belinda Bencic. Riske is 3.1085/40 and based on the grass numbers for the duo, this looks a little big - Riske, at mixed levels, is already 12-1 on the surface this season, although only three victories were underdog wins, with most wins being expected based on market pricing.

Suarez Navarro to end lucky loser Davis' journey

The other match which I want to focus on from a value perspective is Carla Suarez Navarro against Lauren Davis, and I think the 1.738/11 about the Spanish veteran is pretty big here.

CSN hasn't achieved a massive amount on grass in her career, running at barely above a 50% winrate, but her numbers aren't an absolute disaster - she's running at around 102% combined serve/return points won percentage in the last two years on the surface.

My opinion is that this type of level should be too good for Davis today. The American is a lucky loser having already lost in qualifying to Kristie Ahn, and I think the market is over-reacting to her victory over Angelique Kerber in the previous round. Realistically, she's a pretty big downgrade in quality compared to what Suarez Navarro would have expected to face at this stage.

Williams against Goerges in match of the day

In other matches, tournament favourite Ashleigh Barty is an overwhelming favourite to end the campaign of the Brit, Harriet Dart, while there's further British interest in Jo Konta, who faces an intriguing match against Sloane Stephens. Konta is 1.548/15 to make week two, and this looks pretty accurate against an opponent in Stephens who hasn't got the best grass data.

The match of the day though, probably is Serena Williams against Julia Goerges, and while Serena is unbeaten in four clashes against the German, this will be a tough match-up for the current Serena against an opponent who is very strong on grass. The market doesn't look too far out of line and in truth, it's difficult to assess Williams currently - the former world number one currently trading at 1.548/15 at the time of writing.

Follow Dan on Twitter @TennisRatings and watch all the action from Wimbledon on Betfair Live Video

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