Wimbledon Betting / Editor / 24 June 2007 /

Betfair preview: Wimbledon preview

ROGER FEDERER is a man on a mission as he prepares to start the Centre Court action at Wimbledon tomorrow (Monday).

The world number one and defending champion is aiming to become the first man since Bjorn Borg to lift the men's singles crown for the fifth time in a row.

And the word is that the Ice Borg will be there to see him try to do it on finals day at the end of the Wimbledon fortnight.

Federer and Pete Sampras (1997-2000) are the last men to win four Wimbledons in a row but Borg's fifth came back in 1980.

The Swiss ace has had two weeks away from the limelight after failing once again to gain the one major to elude him, the French Open. Many consider him the best ever but until he wins the big one on clay there will always be some who will dispute that claim.

Federer, a strong 1.44 favourite to defend his crown, will arrive in SW19 tomorrow to face Russian Teimuraz Gabashvili on the seven-stage road to glory. It is Gabashvili's first appearance at Wimbledon and his first match against a man with a 32-4 win-loss record there, 28 of those victories being consecutive.

His great rival Raphael Nadal may have a perfect 21-0 record in Paris but 28 wins in a row at Wimbledon - including last year's final triumph over the 21-year-old Spaniard - speaks for itself.

It's hard to imagine that Federer lost in the first round on three of his first four visits from 1999-2002. Mario Ancic was the last man to beat him in the first round (2002) - and in straight sets, too.

In 2001, Britain's own Tim Henman knocked the Swiss ace out in the quarter-finals after Federer had beaten defending champion Sampras in the fourth round, while Yevgeny Kafelnikov in 2000 and Jiri Novak in 1999 are the only other men to have beaten him at the All England Club.

Since 2003, there has been no stopping him. So can anyone stop him this year? Second seed Nadal, a beaten finalist last year, is the obvious candidate and he is second in the winner market at 9. But of the top five seeds, he has the toughest start when he faces American Mardy Fish, the world number 36. Nadal leads 3-0 in head-to-heads though, including a win on grass last year at Queen's Club.

Nadal has not had the best grass-court preparations, losing to surprise Artois finalist Nicolas Mahut at Queen's. But at least that gave him a couple of unexpected days at home and, like Federer in his build-up, time to relax.

Just as Federer is desperate to win on clay, Nadal wants to cut it on grass. And who's to say he can't. This is his fourth Wimbledon and, after a third-round exit in 2003 and a second-round exit in 2005, he surged through to the final last year before losing to Federer in four sets 6-0 7-6 6-7 6-3.

That fourth set was the only one Federer dropped in defending his title but if he runs into Nadal again on finals day, he knows the young star from Majorca will be better equipped this year.

Throughout the hard-court months and the clay-court season in the first half of the year there were certain players spelling trouble for Federer and Nadal. Players like world number 17 Guillermo Canas and Wimbledon fourth and fifth seeds Novak Djokovic (40 to win his first Grand Slam title) and Fernando Gonzalez (280) were to the fore.

Gonzalez, who starts against American Robbie Ginepri, was in blistering form at the Australian Open but for all that, he still couldn't take a set off Federer in the final as the Swiss star went through the Championships without dropping a set. Federer is strongly fancied at 1.24 to repeat the feat at Wimbledon.

Nadal almost matched that in Paris, dropping his only set in winning a third consecutive French Open title in his second successive Roland Garros final against Federer.

That's a tribute to how strong the two big players on the circuit are today. It is going to take something and someone special to stop them.

The best American hope again rests with Andy Roddick and yes, grass, does suit his power game. The secret weapon in his armoury is the presence of former Wimbledon champion Jimmy Connors. And yes, Connors will make Roddick, a 21 chance for glory, a better contender.

But the Artois winner, who opens up against fellow American Justin Gilmelstob, a player who has never been beyond the third round in seven visits, will need no reminding that he has only taken one set off Federer in two final clashes (2004 and 2005).

And this year they can only meet in the semi-finals. Roddick, who beat Gimelstob in their only meeting back in 2002, is trading at 8.6 with Betfair to reach the final but it is hard to see him progressing beyond the last four, unless Federer slips on a banana skin along the way.

Djokovic, the Serbian 20-year-old who opens with a first-time meeting against Italy's Potito Starace, is in Nadal's half and beat him in the quarters on the way to the Miami Masters title. But he lost in straight sets to him in the Paris semi-finals this year, as well as in the quarters last year (retired injured at 6-4 6-4 down), and has yet to show he can handle the longer haul of five setters against the really big boys.

Betfair punters must wait until tomorrow to be sure that Andy Murray will enter the fray after his wrist injury. On form, the eighth seed would be expected to beat Nicolas Lapentti of Ecuador in what will be their first meeting. Even trading at 1.18 with Betfair to win that one, it is a risky bet on a player who has not hit a ball in tournament action since retiring injured in the Hamburg Masters in mid-May.

As for Tim Henman, possibly playing his last Wimbledon at 32, he was one of Federer's victims last year. This time he starts against Nadal's great pal, Carlos Moya. They have met nine times before, but not since 2003 and never on grass. Moya leads 5-4 in head-to-heads, but the British number two is expected to make his grass-court experience count and he is the 1.79 favourite to make it through.

Betfair is offering (seeds in brackets):
(1) Roger Federer 1.44
(2) Rafael Nadal 9
(3) Andy Roddick 21
(4) Novak Djokovic 40
(5) Fernando Gonzalez 290
(6) Nikolay Davydenko 350
(7) Tomas Berdych 60
(8) Andy Murray 90
WHILE the men's championships has the look of a two-horse race, the women's singles is wide open with five previous champions in the line-up.

You can take your pick from defending champion Amelie Mauresmo, and past winners Venus Williams (3 titles), Serena Williams (2), Maria Sharapova and Martina Hingis, who won aged 16 back in 1997.

On top of that there is 2001 and 2006 runner-up Justine Henin, who laid down a marker by beating Mauresmo in Saturday's Eastbourne final, and third-seeded Serbian newcomer Jelena Jankovic, who has won four titles this season, including the Birmingham title on grass earlier this month.

Grass is made for Sharapova's game, but after winning the title in 2004 in only her second attempt, she has lost in the semi-finals for the last two seasons to the eventual champions, Venus Williams and Mauresmo. The Russian ace, 7.8 to land her second Wimbledon crown, has yet to triumph this season, but did make her first final since the Australian Open when beaten by Jankovic in Birmingham.

Henin has the all-court determination to finally succeed at SW19 and has been in great form this year, winning her fourth French Open title and her fifth title of the season at Eastbourne on Saturday. Although the world number one has never won Wimbledon, she has made the final twice before and is trading as the 3.25 favourite to land her second Grand Slam title in 2007.

Serena Williams has the talent and the power that swept her unseeded to the Australian title, leaving Sharapova stunned in the process. The American followed that success up with victory in Miami in early April, but has struggled in the four subsequent tournaments she has played, making only two quarter-finals.

However, punters appear to feel that the return to grass will be to her benefit and she is the second favourite at 4.3 to make it a third win at SW19.

Mauresmo has only picked up one tournament title so far in 2007, in Antwerp, and the reigning champion trades at 9.4 to defend her title. It is worth noting that it is not all doom and gloom as she has made three other finals this season and only lost narrowly in three sets to Henin at Eastbourne - the French ace is priced at 3.7 to reach the final in the second 'Slam of the year.

On the face of it, it looks more open than the men's competition so it may pay to take note of the early rounds to see how the market leaders are performing.
Betfair is offering (seeds in brackets):
(1) Justine Henin 3.4
(2) Maria Sharapova 7.8
(3) Jelena Jankovic 13.5
(4) Amelie Mauresmo 9.2
(5) Svetlana Kuznetsova 60
(6) Ana Ivanovic 40
(7) Serena Williams 4.3
(8) Martina Hingis 100

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