Wimbledon Ladies' Day Nine Tips: Goerges value to keep outright running
After an avalanche of matches on Manic Monday, we are left with just four ladies singles matches today - here to assess the value is our tennis columnist, Dan Weston...
"Conditions should favour Goerges much more - she has a magnificent record in quick conditions and while stats show that servers have benefited marginally less in the ladies event at Wimbledon this year (67.7% of service games held - the lowest for a decade) they still provide a decent advantage for those who are suited by them."
Giorgi gives us a winner on day eight
We enjoyed a decent day yesterday on the women's side with our recommendation, the slight underdog, Camila Giorgi, getting past Ekaterina Makarova in two relatively comfortable sets. She now faces Serena Williams today in the quarter-finals - more on that later.
Goerges triumph gives us an excellent outright position
Julia Goerges also managed to provide us with a positive in the outright market. The German showed no ill-effects from her lengthy match against Barbora Strycova in the third round and the time off court no doubt was of big assistance, as she comfortably brushed aside the threat of Donna Vekic in straight sets.
This gives us a very strong position in the outright market, with the pre-tournament [180.0] about Goerges now standing at [21.0], and the big question is to whether we should hedge, or part-hedge.
Goerges value again for Bertens quarter-final
In truth, this decision needs to be taken with a clear head and no emotion, as well as an accurate evaluation of her clash today with Kiki Bertens. I mentioned that earlier in the event, Bertens was ripe for opposition, and quipped that perhaps her backers had managed to sneak a clay court into SW19, and with her performances so far - she despatched the last remaining top 10 player left in the draw, Karolina Pliskova, yesterday - perhaps they actually managed to pull off this feat!
Seriously, though, conditions should favour Goerges much more - she has a magnificent record in quick conditions and while stats show that servers have benefited marginally less in the ladies event at Wimbledon this year (67.7% of service games held - the lowest for a decade) they still provide a decent advantage for those who are suited by them.
My model does like Goerges' chances too, pricing her at [1.70] to get the win over Bertens this afternoon, and compared to the [2.00] about her on the Exchange, this looks strong value. So while I can understand risk-averse bettors who have taken a position on Goerges pre-event being keen to hedge or part-hedge, it's difficult to advocate this stance given the pre-match value here. In fact, Goerges is today's recommendation.
Kasatkina with chances against Kerber
The other player my model indicated very slight value on was Darya Kasatkina, against Angelique Kerber. The German, Kerber, is a [1.52] favourite on the Exchange, which looks a little short to me. I do feel, though, that conditions do favour her over the talented Russian, Kasatkina, and Kerber's Wimbledon is taking shape as her traditional 'vulnerable in the early rounds, if not knocked out then will get close to the title' major tournament.
Cibulkova not far from value territory
Looking at the remaining two quarter-finals, my model found it difficult to split Dominika Cibulkova and Jelena Ostapenko, making the Latvian, Ostapenko, a [1.96] favourite, with Cibulkova at [2.04]. With this in mind, I'd want around [2.26] for Cibulkova to come into borderline value territory, and she's not far off at the current [2.24]. She looks very motivated here in the last week or so, and perhaps a perceived injustice of her losing her 32nd seeded berth to lower-ranked Serena Williams has inspired her best tennis.
Serena strong favourite for serve-orientated clash
As for Serena, she faces our hero from yesterday, Camila Giorgi, and is a strong [1.23] market favourite to progress to Thursday's semi-finals. My numbers make this about right in what I anticipate will be a very serve-orientated clash with few breaks.
Serena's return numbers both in Paris, at the French Open, and here, at Wimbledon, have been pretty mediocre indeed, breaking opponents just 26.5% in France, and 39.5% here (a figure that was much lower prior to her beating Evgeniya Rodina yesterday). However, she's holding serve in the high 80s, and no other WTA player can come remotely close to these numbers.
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Back Julia Goerges at [2.00]