Wimbledon Men's Day Two Tips: Uchiyama capable of low-profile underdog victory

Croatian Tennis Player Marin Cilic
Marin Cilic has a tricky opener against Adrian Mannarino today...

After an action packed day one of Wimbledon, Dan Weston previews the remaining round one fixtures and picks out a bet...

"Opponent Sandgren hasn’t achieved much on grass in recent years, going 3-5 (0-3 on the main tour) in his career on the surface, with a pretty poor 94% combined serve/return points won percentage, and winning just 44% of games."

Tsitsipas and Zverev dumped out on day one

I'm struggling to remember an opening day of a Grand Slam with so many big names already dumped out of the tournament - on both the men's and women's side. Our recommendations in the men's event went one from two, with Ruben Bemelmans surprisingly outclassed by Stan Wawrinka, but Soon Woo Kwon was impressive in defeat to Karen Khachanov and easily covered the game handicap.

However, these matches were a mere sideshow with there being a number of shock results on the opening day. Stefanos Tsitsipas and Alexander Zverev were both knocked out at around the same time yesterday afternoon, with Thomas Fabbiano stunning the Greek man in five sets. In fact, Fabbiano could have won the match in the fourth set tiebreak, spurning two match points, but deserves plenty of credit for bouncing back in the fifth set.

Zverev defeat assists quarter two pick Raonic

As for Zverev, he was ousted by Jiri Vesely, whose grass data actually isn't bad at all. It was a deserved victory for Vesely, who created more break points than his top 10 opponent and won 54% of points in the match.

After a few mediocre months, this defeat has big implications for Zverev's ability to reach the end of season tour finals in November and is a big boost in the bracket for our outright pick to win quarter two, Milos Raonic, who got past Prajnesh Gunneswaran in straight sets - Raonic is now favourite to win quarter two.

In addition, we also saw the end of Gael Monfils and Grigor Dimitrov in the competition, with heavy pre-match favourite Dimitrov shocking the in-play market after being 2-0 up and serving for the match in the third set. If we see as much drama on day two, the neutral will be delighted!

Thiem and Querrey with interesting match-up

The schedule today is a tough one to decode, with quite a few players looking solid value although my perception is that it's quite a trappy card. One match which definitely falls into that bracket is Dominic Thiem against Sam Querrey, with the big American a 2.506/4 underdog despite having better grass data than Thiem.

It will be interesting to see how Querrey performs after reaching the final of Eastbourne on Saturday after almost three months out, and this would be a concern for me, plus his rather notorious issue of disappointing when expectations are high.

Kyrgios surely keen to meet Nadal in round two

Marcos Baghdatis, who was rather curiously awarded a wild card despite not playing any warm-up events and not playing a main tour match since February is another player that may seduce some betting interest as a marginal 1.768/11 favourite against lucky loser Brayden Schnur.

If Baghdatis can replicate his grass level from recent years, it should be too much for the Canadian, but that's far from a given with injury and age-related decline concerns.

An all-Australian clash is also of interest, with Jordan Thompson facing Nick Kyrgios, and the winner has a probable second round meeting with Rafa Nadal.

Kyrgios looks pretty short at 1.392/5 here but is a man for the big stage, and will surely be keen to reinvigorate his rivalry with Nadal following Kyrgios' recent comments in the media. If he's not motivated for this, then he never will be, and the market appears to have priced that in.

Yasutaka capable of underdog victory

Looking at some further value options, I'm a little taken with a low-level meeting between qualifier Yasutaka Uchiyama and Tennys Sandgren. The Japanese man, Uchiyama, is a bit of a late developer with his current ranking at the age of 26 close to his career best. He's had a solid year on the Challenger Tour so far and based on the ROI returned from blind-backing his matches, would look to be serially under-rated by the betting markets.

Opponent Sandgren hasn't achieved much on grass in recent years, going 3-5 (0-3 on the main tour) in his career on the surface, with a pretty poor 94% combined serve/return points won percentage, and winning just 44% of games. Defeats in the last couple of years on grass against the likes of Bjorn Fratangelo, Vincent Millot and Frank Dancevic hardly inspire confidence and I'm surprised he's a 1.748/11 market favourite here - from a small sample size of data I make him the underdog.

Uchiyama did well to qualify here, with wins over capable opponents Evgeny Donskoy and Jason Kubler highlights, and I think he can go well for us today at a nice 2.305/4 underdog price.

Cilic with tricky opener against Mannarino

It also wouldn't surprise me if Dennis Novak performed well against Marton Fucsovics, with the Austrian qualifier posting excellent grass numbers at a lower level in the last couple of years.

He is a slight 2.0811/10 underdog to make round two, while Jan-Lennard Struff looks over-rated at 1.351/3 against the competent Radu Albot - Struff has improved, but not that much!

We also see the likes of Roger Federer, Rafa Nadal and Marin Cilic all begin their campaigns today, and Cilic's meeting against the grass-loving Adrian Mannarino was certainly a tough round one draw for the Croat. However, he's fairly accurately priced at 1.364/11 to progress here.

Follow Dan on Twitter @TennisRatings and watch all the action from Wimbledon on Betfair Live Video

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