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Wimbledon Men's Day 7: Improving Zverev value to oust Raonic

Milos Raonic could struggle today against Alexander Zverev...
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After a day off on Sunday, day seven of Wimbledon sees all 16 remaining players in the draw in action. Our tennis columnist, Dan Weston, gives his thoughts on today's men's singles schedule...


"Zverev has won 70.7% of service points and 39.1% return points on grass this year, winning nine of his 11 matches."

Favourites dominate so far at SW19


It's fair to say that the men's tournament at Wimbledon has been a little underwhelming, in contrast to the ladies' event, with favourites progressing with ease and few upsets. Numerous sub-[1.25] shots have had facile victories, and with all the 16 players left in the competition on court, we have a few more competitive offerings on today's schedule - all available on Betfair Live Video.


Cilic looks short against Bautista-Agut


Having said this, there are still a few heavy favourites in action, and in effect, these are the big four, plus Marin Cilic. The Croat has looked a little short in matches all tournament although his opponents have buckled under pressure at the critical moments - the second set tiebreak for Steve Johnson last week a prime example - and it will be interesting to see how Roberto Bautista-Agut fares in this one. My model again made Cilic short at [1.23].


Big four justifiably heavy favourites


My model, however, did make the big four all relatively accurately priced at around [1.20] or below, although only Novak Djokovic, against Adrian Mannarino, looks to be facing an opponent unlikely to be capable of doing him damage.

World number one, Andy Murray, faces the unpredictable Benoit Paire, and with Murray's fitness still in question, Paire could test the Scotsman. Certainly, he will make him run while playing his favoured drop shots.

Rafa Nadal faces a completely different threat in the shape of the big-serving Gilles Muller, with the man from Luxembourg more than capable of making the King of Clay's afternoon very difficult indeed, particularly if he can take a tiebreak or two, while Roger Federer brings a 5-0 head to head lead into his match with Grigor Dimitrov. Both players favour the surface, but with Federer better in all aspects, and proving so historically, it would be a brave man to oppose the Swiss legend at today's [1.20].


Serve likely to dominate Querrey and Anderson's match


In other matches, Sam Querrey and Kevin Anderson's match looks likely to produce few breaks, although the 11/10 with the Sportsbook for there to be a first set tiebreak looks about the right price, according to my numbers. I'm also interested in the match between Tomas Berdych and Dominic Thiem, with my data pricing up the Czech, who is much more comfortable on grass, at [1.90]. The market has backed him in slightly to close to that mark.


Zverev a false underdog against Raonic


With seven matches out of the way, it leaves us with one to consider - Milos Raonic against Alexander Zverev. At the time of writing, the Canadian is favourite at [1.83] on the Exchange and I made these odds virtually the other way around, with Zverev priced at [1.79] by my model.

This is mainly down to the strong improvement that the German youngster has exhibited in 2017 across all surfaces, with grass being no exception, and Zverev has won 70.7% of service points and 39.1% return points on grass this year, winning nine of his 11 matches.

In fact, these numbers are close to the 110% elite level on grass and with Raonic's fitness seemingly permanently questionable, I like Zverev's chances a lot in a best of five affair.


Recommended Bets

Back Alexander Zverev at [2.18]


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Follow Dan on Twitter @TennisRatings


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