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Wimbledon Women's Day 8: Kuznetsova drift puts her in value territory

Svetlana Kuznetsova was excellent in victory yesterday...
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It's quarter-final day in the ladies singles event at Wimbledon today, and with all four looking like well-matched affairs, available on Betfair Live Video, our tennis columnist, Dan Weston, checks out the value.


"In the last 12 months on grass, Muguruza has a small edge on service points won (61.0% to 59.5%) but Kuznetsova enjoys a slightly bigger edge on return points won (43.8% to 41.8%) and it is clear from this that the match-up is very even indeed."

Devastating display from Kuznetsova ousts Radwanska


Agnieszka Radwanska's defeat as a solid underdog against Svetlana Kuznetsova was a disappointment yesterday but in the first set in particular, Kuznetsova's level was as good as I've seen from her for a decent while, and she blasted the Pole off court with a devastating display in the opening set, and then Radwanska could not convert an opening when Kuznetsova served for the match in the second.

With very dominant wins in her last two matches, Kuznetsova's grass stats have received a huge boost, and today she takes on Garbine Muguruza. The Spaniard herself had an impressive three-set win over Angelique Kerber, who also played well herself, although Kerber lost a break lead twice in the final set.


Muguruza outlasts Kerber in level match


In that match, Kerber (10) had more break point chances than Muguruza (eight) and the players actually won 101 points each in the match, so it is without a doubt fair to suggest that Muguruza's progress was not in dominant fashion whatsoever.

Contrasting this with Kuznetsova, who needed 49 fewer minutes to dispose of Radwanska, and there being no rest day between matches in the quarter-finals, it could be reasonable to argue Kuznetsova will be a little fresher coming into this, and grass data also likes her chances compared to market prices.


Grass data finds it hard to split the duo


In the last 12 months on grass, Muguruza has a small edge on service points won (61.0% to 59.5%) but Kuznetsova enjoys a slightly bigger edge on return points won (43.8% to 41.8%) and it is clear from this that the match-up is very even indeed.

However, despite this, the market has seen an avalanche of support for Muguruza and she's now [1.63] to progress to the semi-finals, with Kuznetsova having drifted to a value-looking [2.56].

This was the only match today where my model reflected value, although the other three clashes all look to have the potential to be of a very high standard.


Veteran Williams faces the power of youngster Ostapenko


In the first on court of the three, Venus Williams is a [1.77] favourite to get past the French Open champion, Jelena Ostapenko, and my model made this about right. However, there is little doubt that Ostapenko is the player with much more upside and it will be fascinating to see how the American veteran copes with the Latvian's aggressive, power-dominated game.

At around 2:30pm UK time, there's a more serve-orientated clash in prospect as Magdalena Rybarikova takes on Coco Vandeweghe, with the American big-server, Vandeweghe, the shortest priced favourite today at [1.51] to make the semi-finals.

This line looks a touch short but the discrepancy is nothing particularly noteworthy, and with both players considerably favoured by grass court conditions, we should see two players at their best abilities here - it wouldn't surprise me at all if this was a very tight match indeed.


Halep favoured by market to end Konta's journey


Finally, the Brit, Jo Konta, faces Simona Halep in the last quarter-final on the schedule today, and it is Halep who has received all the market support overnight, having been matched at [2.1] on the Exchange in early trading before dropping to a current [1.90].

My model agreed that the Romanian should be a slight favourite here and it is interesting to see that the market hasn't bought into the media narrative surrounding Konta whatsoever - my suspicion is that having needed two three-set epics to beat worse opponents in Donna Vekic and Caroline Garcia, Konta may struggle against a significant upgrade in Halep today.


Recommended Bets

Back Svetlana Kuznetsova at [2.56]


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Follow Dan on Twitter @TennisRatings


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