It's day five of Wimbledon today, and here to discuss the eight third round matches in the men's singles event is our tennis columnist, Dan Weston...
"Opponent Mannarino has been competent on grass for a number of years but Medvedev, at just 22 years of age, has already demonstrated a slightly better level and is the player open to further improvement. "
Cilic shocked as Federer shortens in the outright
It was good and bad news on day four as Jiri Vesely easily despatched Diego Schwartzman in straight sets to provide us with a winner from yesterday's preview, but somehow Marin Cilic - our outright pick - was beaten by Guido Pella from two sets up. Overnight, our man from Croatia was [1.03] to make it through and was matched for over £200,000 at [1.01] but struggled in three tight sets against the Argentine clay-courter.
The main player to benefit from this in the outright market is Roger Federer, with the Swiss man now coming into [2.10] to win the tournament, a price that I make quite short given that he's not been tested so far.
It's unlikely that Jan-Lennard Struff will be able to do so today. Not only is the German far inferior to Federer on grass - Struff's data is worse than the average player - but he's unlikely to be in great condition following a four-hour match with Ivo Karlovic on Wednesday. Adrian Mannarino or in particular, Daniil Medvedev, in the fourth round on Monday could prove more of a tougher assignment.
Medvedev value to meet Federer on Monday
Medvedev looks pretty decent value for this match-up, based on my data. I have the Russian at [1.70] yet the market on the Exchange currently prices him at [1.90], and the reasoning for this is completely straightforward.
Opponent Mannarino has been competent on grass for a number of years but Medvedev, at just 22 years of age, has already demonstrated a slightly better level and is the player open to further improvement. In main tour matches during the last 18 months on grass, Medvedev has won 3.1% more service points (66.8% to 63.7%) and 1.7% fewer return points (35.4% to 37.1%) and this 1.4% overall edge led me to my model pricing.
Both players endured a woeful clay court season but are much more at home in quicker conditions, and I like Medvedev's chances here to set up that clash with Federer on Monday.
Novak and Albot with handicap potential
In other matches, my model found slight value on two huge underdogs, Dennis Novak (against Milos Raonic) and Radu Albot, who faces John Isner. Actually Albot's grass court stats aren't a disaster at all, and it wouldn't be a huge shock if he covered the +4.5 game handicap against Isner, who evenutally struggled past Ruben Bemelmans in their rain-delayed match yesterday.
We also see several intriguing clashes, with Sam Querrey is a [1.47] favourite to get the better of Gael Monfils, which looks a tiny bit short, while Kevin Anderson takes a 3-0 head to head lead into his clash with Philipp Kohlschreiber.
Tiebreaks likely for Anderson and Kohlschreiber clash
The German won all three tiebreaks against Gilles Muller in the last round and my model makes tiebreaks again likely today, with a first-set tiebreak around a 56% chance based on my numbers. This implies a price of [1.79] but the Sportsbook is offering a rather generous 11/8 on this outcome, and this simple mathematical discrepancy creates a second opportunity for us today.
Pella and McDonald likely to be fatigued
Finally, Cilic's conqueror, Guido Pella, looks like he's priced about right as a slight favourite as he faces Mackenzie McDonald, who needed an 11-9 final set to defeat Nicolas Jarry in round two. Both players are unlikely to be 100% fresh for this match and a long match again today could be an error-strewn affair.
We also see Stefanos Tsitsipas face Thomas Fabbiano with the Greek man a [1.45] favourite. I make this a bit short and it will be interesting to see whether Fabbiano can back-up his win over Stan Wawrinka in round two - his grass stats are pretty solid for a player of his relatively lowly ranking.
Follow Dan on Twitter @TennisRatings
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