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US Open Women's Day Nine Tips: Svitolina and Williams market favourites to progress

American Tennis Player Serena Williams
Serena Williams is a strong market favourite to lift the trophy...
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The women's singles tournament at the US Open has now reached the quarter-final stage, and returning to discuss the two matches taking place tonight, is our tennis columnist, Dan Weston...

"Serena is now [2.42] to lift the trophy and as long as she doesn’t have any new fitness issues, looks justified to have such status. As mentioned above, she’s been the best player, statistically, in the field here this year, and it would be a pretty big shock if Wang knocked her out tonight."

Andreescu among last night's winners

Among the victors last night in New York was our Q2 outright pick, Bianca Andreescu, with the Canadian 19 year old now only one match away from converting for us. She is a solid market favourite over Elise Mertens tomorrow night, and I'll discuss this match in detail during Wednesday's preview.

Tonight sees the first two women's quarter-finals, however, and these feature the winners from Sunday night.

Konta not without a chance for Svitolina clash

First up, at 1700 UK time, is Elina Svitolina against Johanna Konta, and Svitolina is currently the [1.53] market favourite on the Exchange. I make this a little short but not enough to entice a recommendation on Konta, who I have mentioned should be less suited to the slower conditions in New York.

Despite this, however, Konta has performed well to get to this stage, and actually has the second highest combined service/return points won percentage (118.0%) of all the players left in the tournament, when looking at data from the 2019 US Open in isolation - she's only behind Serena Williams in this regard.

Svitolina is a couple of percentage points behind at the US Open this year, but based on 12 month hard court data does have an advantage over the Brit. Having said this, the Ukranian is yet to drop a set in the tournament, so does come into the match having shown a solid level herself - this should be a fascinating match between two players clearly playing good tennis to get to this stage.

Wang yet to drop a set in advance of Williams meeting

The second semi-final, scheduled to be played in the early hours for European viewers, is Serena Williams against Qiang Wang, who incidentally is another player yet to drop a set in the event so far.

Despite this, Serena is a strong market favourite at [1.24] to get through to the semi-finals, and while my model went slightly bigger - more around the [1.30] mark, there's not enough value on Wang to suggest that there's anything worth acting upon.

Based on hard court numbers this year, Williams has around a 4% edge on service points won, and just over a 2% advantage on return, against arguably a slightly higher calibre of opponent in general.

Serena is now [2.42] to lift the trophy and as long as she doesn't have any new fitness issues, looks justified to have such status. As mentioned above, she's been the best player, statistically, in the field here this year, and it would be a pretty big shock if Wang knocked her out tonight.

However, Wang took the scalp of world number two Ashleigh Barty in the last round, but that was, according to my numbers, a meeting where there wasn't such a big gap between the two players. This match against Serena looks a little different, and while Wang isn't without a chance, it will be a big ask for her tonight.

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Follow Dan on Twitter @TennisRatings

Dan's US Open P&L:-

14 Matches
9 Wins
14 Units Staked
20.15 Units Returned
43.93% ROI

Dan Weston,

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