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US Open Women's Day Six Tips: Bencic value as marginal favourite

Danish Tennis Player Caroline Wozniacki
Caroline Wozniacki's clash with Bianca Andreescu is match of the day...
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The third round at the US Open continues on Saturday evening, and with eight further matches in the women's singles, our tennis columnist, Dan Weston, is back to discuss the value...

"This is purely a numbers spot with Bencic having a 2% edge on combined service/return points won percentage (104% to 102%) and around a 6% combined hold/break edge this year on hard court. "

    Wang just fails to cover game handicap against Ferro

    We had our first loss of a solid US Open campaign so far when Qiang Wang won 7-6 6-3 against Fiona Ferro, narrowly defeating our -4.5 game position on Wang by a mere half a game. In fact, the majority of the women's matches went to the favourites, with Karolina Pliskova, Ash Barty and Serena Williams notable winners, and it will be interesting to see whether this persists with tonight's matches.

    Our attempt to get back on track tonight was rather dealt a blow with there not being much noteworthy value on today's women's schedule - most market prices look pretty accurate.

    Bencic with an edge over Kontaveit

    The one spot I do like to a certain extent is Belinda Bencic at [1.93] against Anett Kontaveit. This is purely a numbers spot with Bencic having a 2% edge on combined service/return points won percentage (104% to 102%) and around a 6% combined hold/break edge this year on hard court.

    This discrepancy should make Bencic's price a little shorter than market lines, and while I'd urge caution in staking, she does look like some slight value tonight, in the night match.

    Putintseva a little-under rated for Vekic clash

    I also think that Yulia Putintseva, whose numbers on hard court have improved in general this season, might be a touch under-valued at [3.35] against Donna Vekic despite Vekic having won all three head to head matches. One of these was in 2013, which cannot be remotely considered to be relevant, but Vekic does have a decent statistical edge in their two more recent meetings, where Putintseva has barely won more than 50% of service points.

    It's difficult to debate the other prices. At just shy of [1.40] both Naomi Osaka and Elise Mertens are the heaviest favourites of the day, as they face Cori Gauff and Andrea Petkovic, respectively. Gauff's numbers show she's still a little over-rated (she's still below 100% combined service/return points won on hard court this season) but I think the current market lines for the Osaka v Gauff match are about right.

    Wozniacki v Andreescu the match of the day

    Arguably the biggest match today is Caroline Wozniacki, who has had fitness issues for a while now, against Bianca Andreescu, who is our outright pick in the second quarter. Andreescu looks pretty accurately priced as a reasonable favourite at [1.60], although she took to the court last round with considerable strapping, which may be a slight concern.

    There's also the opportunity for several unlikely names to get to the second week. It would have been extremely difficult to anticipate Taylor Townsend and Sorana Cirstea meeting for a round four spot, and likewise Kristie Ahn and Jelena Ostapenko, given Ostapenko's continued service issues. Certainly, whoever comes through the Wozniacki v Andreescu match today will be a decent favourite to win the quarter.

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    Follow Dan on Twitter @TennisRatings

Dan's US Open P&L:-

11 Matches
6 Wins
11 Units Staked
14.45 Units Returned
31.36% ROI

Dan Weston,

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