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US Open Women's Day Ten Tips: Vekic generously priced to beat Bencic

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Quarter-final action continues at the US Open tonight...
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Today's women's singles matches at the US Open see the remaining quarter-finals taking place, and returning to give his thoughts on the two matches is our tennis columnist, Dan Weston...

"Bencic is a [ ] market favourite but I'm struggling to understand the rationale behind this price. Bencic has got a combined service/return points won percentage of 103.8% on hard court this year, with Vekic very slightly higher, at 104.1%. Vekic also had a 4.4% combined advantage over Bencic in 2018."

Svitolina and Serena with straight set victories

There were straight set victories for Elina Svitolina and Serena Williams in the first two quarter finals last night in New York, with Svitolina triumphing 6-4 6-4 over Johanna Konta in a strong victory, while Serena routined our hero from the previous round, Qiang Wang, for the loss of one solitary game.

The neutral will probably be hoping for more competitive matches tonight and I'm a little puzzled by the market line in the first match between Belinda Bencic and Donna Vekic.

Vekic with statistical edge over Bencic

Bencic is a [1.61] market favourite but I'm struggling to understand the rationale behind this price. Bencic has got a combined service/return points won percentage of 103.8% on hard court this year, with Vekic very slightly higher, at 104.1%. Vekic also had a 4.4% combined advantage over Bencic in 2018.

I can only think that the market is enticed by Bencic's reputation and ranking edge, plus a better record here in this year's US Open to get to this stage, plus perhaps an over-reaction to her win over world number one Naomi Osaka in the previous round.

It's also worth noting that Bencic retired with a foot injury in her previous tournament, in Cincinnati, to Victoria Azarenka when she was 6-4 1-0 down, so all positives point to Vekic at market prices here. She's our recommendation for today.

Andreescu solid favourite to get past Mertens

In the second semi-final tonight, our Q2 pick, Bianca Andreescu, needs to beat Elise Mertens to convert for us, and the Canadian, who has moved to 33-4 on hard court this year, looks priced fairly at [1.56] to do so.

Andreescu holds around a 3.5% edge on service points won on hard court this season, and a shade over 1% on return over Mertens, so statistically she has an edge which makes the market prices look accurate.

Interestingly, though Mertens has performed superbly at the tournament this year, not dropping a set and actually having won more service and return points than Andreescu in the four matches to get to this stage, so it's far from a done deal that Andreescu will ease to a comfortable victory here, but no value in this second semi-final.

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Follow Dan on Twitter @TennisRatings

Dan's US Open P&L:-

15 Matches
10 Wins
15 Units Staked
22.43 Units Returned
49.53% ROI

Dan Weston,

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