US Open Betting / Gary Boswell / 28 August 2009 /

In the latest instalment in his US Open Betting portfolio, The Boz offers three handy pointers to finding upsets and highlights the first round matches where things could go against the book...

There's three things to keep in mind when looking for upsets in the first round of a Grand Slam tennis event.

Firstly, it's a worthwhile activity because they always happen - without fail. As sure as hailstones on a UK Bank Holiday weekend (what I can see out of my window as I write!!).

Secondly, it's not always easy to predict which matches they will happen in so be prepared to be made to look an idiot if you get it horribly wrong (not something I personally have a problem with!).

Thirdly, it is always worth keeping in mind Betfair's in-play betting for the purposes of hedging. When you are backing the outsider, it is always that bit easier to go comfortably green on the match if your pick takes a lead but is ultimately unable to convert it into outright victory.

I always investigate the possible first round shocks in the women's quarter of a Grand Slam Tennis event (where I specialise) and here are mine for the upcoming US Open at Flushing Meadows. I have them in two groups of four - the first being the shorter priced ones where I will need two from four to prevail to show an overall level stakes profit. The second group are the real longshots with a viable chance whose prices dictate that I will only need one from four to score in order to show a level stakes profit.

Group One

Jarmila Groth to beat Shuai Peng priced at [3.25] or greater

This is my top rated as the 61 ranked Slovakian has a current head to head plus over her 44 ranked opponent. It came on the hard court in Brisbane earlier this year and was achieved in straight sets 6-4 6-2. Peng is the more experienced with good Slam experience behind her but current form has seen her slipping in the rankings and she would be ripe for a shock early exit in my eyes.The price also strikes me as a wrong one. Overly generous on the Slovakian's chance.

Petra Kvitova to beat Alisa Kleybanova priced at [2.9] or greater

This is my second best with the Czech Republic 69 ranked up against the Russian 28th seed. Both are young talents and the Russian's power game has propelled her forward and up the rankings more quickly. Kvitova has the more subtle game,however, and used it to gain a victory over the Russian the only time they've met on the tour on hardcourt in Los Angeles in 2008. I watched that game which went three sets. Kleybanova bludgeoned her way to a 6-1 second set victory after losing the first set 6-4 but it was Kvitova who then held her nerve and regrouped to win the third set 7-5. She looks a long price to me to cement that edge once more on American soil.

Carla Suarez-Navarro to beat Varvava Lepchenno priced at [2.0] or greater

I can't pretend to understand the pricing up of this one with the 84 ranked American an odds on against the 34 ranked Spanish Islander. There could be injury doubts about the Spaniard but Suarez-Navarro is in the draw and if she plays, she would eat the American émigré alive on my ratings. I think 34 is below where she is although I concede that injury and poor form are always a concern. Class is permanent, however, and her victory over Venus during the Australian in January was no fluke. If she plays this match, I'm on her overcoming injury problems to win it.

Kateryna Bondarenko to beat Ana Ivanovicpriced at [3.2] or greater

The 11th seeded Serbian - Slam winner at Roland Garros in 2008 - has been on a terrible downslide ever since and is reportedly unable to focus her mind on her game sufficiently with those Economic studies taking greater precedence. The Russian doubles specialist has a 1-0 head to head anyway achieved in Stuttgart in 2007 on the hardcourt. She certainly also has the game that is more suited to the surface with Ivanovic arguably ineffective on any surface other than clay. Ranked 51 in the world at the moment and undoubtedly considered the inferior singles player of the sisterhood, Kateryna is however in sufficiently good current form to be considered a possible shocker against the wafer thin confidence and competitive emotional fragility that is Ana Ivanovic.

Group Two:

AI Sugiyama to beat Samantha Stosur priced at [7.5] or greater

You'd have to fancy Stosur on current form and her rise to 15 in the world rankings has been relentless in 2008 and 2009 with form in all the Slams also very noticeable.
She also has a recent straight sets victory over the Japanese veteran achieved in Brisbane. The three matches before that,however were all won by Sugiyama and all on hardcourt where the 34 year old is a tricky opponent well capable of mixing it with the best. Rated 68 now and towards the end of a distinguished career this strikes me as a possible swansong at the price.

Nuria Llagostera-vives to beat Vera Zvonereva priced at [7.0] or greater

An even bigger shock if the number seven seeded Russian was to flop in this after a 6-2 6-0 demolition job last time they met. These things happen though and if you go back to 2005, the Spaniard has form and won an immensely tense three setter in Miami on hardcourt. Zvonareva is very much the sort of player to either breeze through or get involved in a slog and this is one of those to be hedging in play if things don't go her way early on.

Meghan Shaughnessy to beat Daniela Hantuchova priced at [7.0] or greater

The 916 rated American will be a real live shocker and you may well get much longer odds than I project but that home crowd factor is always one to have on your side and Shaughnessy beat Hantuchova a convincing 6-4 6-1 in Sydney 2002. The 23-year-old Slovakian can blow hot and cold and this is a bet about the recent scorching form suddenly cooling! It is once again something that does happen and Shaughnessy does have the kind of game to whip up that home crowd support. You'll remember Hantuchova having a similar problem at Wimbledon this year when dropping the first set against Laura Robson. That's another pointer to me and I'll have my finger on the button in-play in case the Slovakian gets off to another ropey start!

Roberta Vinci to beat Jelena Jankovic priced at [9.0] or greater

Another real live whopper in the shock stakes if this lands but I rate the 45 ranked Italian quite highly and on her day, Jankovic is as capable of throwing in a stinker as anyone both physically and mentally. Her performance at Wimbledon 2008 against Tanusugarn is still very much at the forefront of my mind and I watched her also capitulate against Marion Bartoli at the Australian in January. The head to head shows Jankovic 2-0 up but both games were played on her favoured clay, incredibly tight three setters won both times in a tiebreak. Arguably that plays to Jankovic's battling strengths but I'd be very surprised if this is one of those uncompetitive first round mismatches and once more I'll have my finger firmly on the hedging button in case the Italian gets off to the start I think she might.

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