US Open Betting / Gary Boswell / 27 August 2009 /

Gary Boswell explains why he believes Williams jnr is way too short to triumph at Flushing Meadows. But that doesn't mean he doesn't think she'll win. Confused? Read on...

I had a very interesting discussion with betting.betfair.com editor Jamie Pacheco this week about perceived value when backing favourites.

To be fair to him, it sprang out of his perception that I have a tendency to oppose favourites as a matter of course based mainly on what he has seen me doing in my Betfair tennis columns over the past 12 months where I've been trying unsuccessfully to get Serena Williams beaten in a Grand Slam!

He doesn't see the private tipping service that I run that has its main segment (and my main strength) highlighted in the ability to identify stone bonking certainies (that are almost always market favourites) and string them together into a winning sequence to achieve the same sort of overall profits that one good longshot can bring you.

Both methods are in my tipping and gambling personality but I will confess to always looking at playing the portfolio approach in an outrights market from the starting point of trying to oppose the favourite. That's part of my perfect punter approach to using these markets as an opportunity to land the big fish outsider that is always so exciting as a gambler and does have its place in Grand Slam tennis outright markets simply because every now and then you get a Jo Wilfrid Tsonga and when you do, the rewards are very,very sweet!

So here I am again constructing a portfolio around the fact that Serena Williams is way, way too short at [3.25] for the upcoming US Open at Flushing Meadows. Which doesn't mean I don't think she'll win. Of course she is the most likely. Three out of the last four makes her pedigree as impressive as ever.

My opposition to her is not based on blind anti-fav mentality (Well, it is a bit, you can't budge the habit of a lifetime!!) and believe me, if I thought she was a certainty, I'd be steamrollering in because then [3.25] would be a serious value price as it has been at both Wimbledon and Melbourne this year when she has won.

Fact is, she is not a certainty these days. This is not 2002 when she was at the peak of her physical prowess, her power was so awesome and she was damn near 'unplayable'.

These days you can take her on and you can beat her. Even in the big ones although I'll be the first to confess that when it comes to Grand Slams, her ferocious mental attitude is still a weapon that puts her into a total class of her own. She even outstrips Venus in that department for me (although they are both unsurpassed by anyone else in the modern game).

She won Wimbledon this year with her mind. I'm totally sure of that. The semi-final against Elena Dementieva was a clear case of the Russian playing the better tennis (as she had in that defining gold medal game in Beijing) and I thought Pat Cash coined it perfectly when he identified that Dementieva would have won at Wimbledon if only she could have overcome the 'why me?' complex she descended into every time she lost a crucial point.

"You gotta pick yourself up and get on with it, girl - like Serena does," blasted Cash and he was spot on. Serena got through on her positive attitude then went on to beat her sister in the final with the better tennis!

I don't regret tipping against Serena at Wimbledon nor at any of the recent grand slams despite the lack of success in getting her beat. I'm a canny enough Betfair player to know that we have the safety net of hedging her on the inplay outrights whenever she gets into a points pickle as she did in that semi versus Dementieva. Some of my customers did better than me and hedged her back at [10.0] when she faced match point so she instantly shifts from the biggie you want beat - to the fav you are shouting for. Such is the Betfair betting experience and that's what I love about it!

Serena should win again at Flushing Meadows on form. You can discount the semi-final defeat to Dementieva in the recent Rogers Cup in Toronto. Serena cranks herself into another mental gear for the Slams and is indeed totally justified as favourite but the Boz still takes her on because she is not a certainty - not because the price you take when you back is not particularly good value. Like all good winning favs, it will be good value if it wins!

Recommendation:

1pt Lay on Serena Williams at [3.3]

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