Dan Weston is on form, picking up two winners from the previous day's action. He has another pick on Friday as eight women's matches get underway...
"There's probably a little bit of recency bias in Ferro's price given that she won in Lausanne just over a month ago and then reached the quarter-finals in Palermo immediately afterwards, but both those tournaments were on clay, where she tends to do her best work."
Sevastova and Osaka help us go four from four
We went four from four on the women's side at the US Open this week with Anastasija Sevastova picking up a three-set win over Iga Swiatek, and Naomi Osaka covering the -4.5 game handicap in her win over Magda Linette. With both spots just over even money, we've had a great first couple of rounds of the tournament so far, and hopefully we can build on that in the coming days in New York.
I also discussed Simona Halep's vulnerabilities both in the pre-tournament previews and during my daily thoughts and the Romanian was knocked out in dramatic fashion by Taylor Townsend in the shock result of the day, although I was also surprised that Jelena Ostapenko got the better of Alison Riske in straight sets.
As for today, there's not much in the way of value across the eight matches on the women's schedule, with my model highlighting value in just a couple of spots.
Konta could be pushed by Zhang
I think in these medium-paced/medium-slow conditions Johanna Konta looks a little over-rated in general and while the very inconsistent Margerita Gasparyan couldn't take advantage yesterday, the Brit will start to face much more competent opposition in the upcoming rounds.
Today she faces Shuai Zhang who definitely falls into that bracket, and Konta looks short at [1.34]. Zhang's recent results aren't hugely impressive though, and there's a retirement loss in the last month as well, but if she's fit, she could test Konta. The game handicap market could possibly be a viable option here.
Wang capable of easing past Ferro
However, for today's recommendation, I think Qiang Wang is again under-rated by the markets for her match with the French player, Fiona Ferro. There's probably a little bit of recency bias in Ferro's price given that she won in Lausanne just over a month ago and then reached the quarter-finals in Palermo immediately afterwards, but both those tournaments were on clay, where she tends to do her best work.
On hard court, Ferro's numbers are not nearly as good as her clay data, and I make Wang even shorter than her [1.36] market price. We can get [1.96] on Wang giving up a 4.5 game head start and this is a line that she's covered in the vast majority of her wins when similarly priced on hard court - again giving weight to my suspicion that she's serially under-rated by many in these spots.
Muchova could compete well against Serena
In other matches, our Q3 pick, Karolina Pliskova is in action against Ons Jabeur, and is a heavy favourite to progress, while Serena Williams is similarly priced againt the big-serving and improving Czech player, Karolina Muchova.
This should be a battle of big-servers and Williams looks fairly accurately priced here, but this could be a real test for the former number one against a player who is on a real upward curve - certainly a match I'll be keen to keep an eye on.
With Ash Barty, Madison Keys and Elina Svitolina other favourites taking to the courts on day five there's plenty of big names competing tonight, but in our attempt to go five from five on the women's side, our faith is in Wang to ease to a comfortable victory.
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Dan's US Open P&L:-
9 Units Staked
14.45 Units Returned
Back Qiang Wang -4.5 games at [1.96] to beat Fiona Ferro