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US Open Women's Day Three Tips: Sevastova with edge over Swiatek

Czech Tennis Player Karolina Pliskova
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Dan Weston is two from two in the women's event and picks out another tip for today's US Open action...

"My perception is that Swiatek is a little over-rated here given her rising reputation and also Sevastova's negative win-loss record on hard this year, but there's a clear reason for that - she's running at 8.3% below expectation on break points in 2019 on the surface. "

Kalinskaya gives us back-to-back winners

We went two from two on Tuesday night with the heavy underdog Anna Kalinskaya not only able to cover the game handicap against Sloane Stephens but dumping the American out of the tournament in straight sets.

Joining Stephens in elimination also included Garbine Muguruza, Victoria Azarenka and Svetlana Kuznetsova while Simona Halep, at [1.06], was pushed to three sets by Nicole Gibbs. Our outright pick for quarter two, Bianca Andreescu, eased into round two in straight sets.

Konta vulnerable if Gasparyan is fit

There's a couple of interesting spots on day three with Johanna Konta looking very over-rated by the market for her match against the Russian, Margerita Gasparyan. Konta hasn't impressed of late, with the 16th seed losing three matches on the spin coming into the tournament, and is running at just 101% combined service/return points won on hard court this year.

Opponent Gasparyan has had injuries, is an inconsistent type and a pretty poor front-runner in matches, but definitely has talent - she's running at 103% combined on hard court in main tour matches in the last three years. If it wasn't for several recent retirements for Gasparyan, including at Wimbledon where she was in a good spot against Elina Svitolina, I'd be keen to look at opposing Konta here. We might be able to do so in round three against either competent potential opponent.

Konta will face either Ekaterina Alexandrova or Shuai Zhang, with Alexandrova the [1.62] favourite here against Zhang, who is another player who has had some injury issues affecting her level of late. Numbers like Zhang here, making it a 'pick-em' match, and if Zhang is fit, she'd be excellent value here against an opponent who tends to play her best tennis in quicker conditions.

Wang favourite value against Van Uytvanck

Another player who probably will like the courts to play a little quicker would be Alison Van Uytvanck, with Qiang Wang looking the best value favourite today, at a current [1.40]. Wang had an excellent hard court level in the last few months of 2018, and shouldn't be judged too harshly for mediocre clay and grass seasons given my relatively low expectations. She could well prove to be under-rated by the markets in the coming couple of months as the tour moves to the Far East.

Sevastova with edge over Swiatek

So, the question is - who gets the nod as today's recommendation in our attempt to hit a hat-trick of consecutive winners in the women's tournament. I'm going to go for Anastasija Sevastova at [2.00] against the Polish 18 year old, Iga Swiatek.

I've discussed Swiatek at length on numerous occasions before and I think that she's a player with huge potential, stretching to possibly even Slam-winning capability in the future. Her clay numbers are stratospheric, but on hard court, she's less impressive from a statistical perspective - particularly on return - and Sevastova has around a 2% edge on combined service/return points won this season on the surface.

My perception is that Swiatek is a little over-rated here given her rising reputation and also Sevastova's negative win-loss record on hard this year, but there's a clear reason for that - she's running at 8.3% below expectation on break points in 2019 on the surface. If she resolves those issues, which are usually variance-driven, she'll certainly get that winrate on the right side of 50%.

So, it's Sevastova for us tonight, while it will be interesting to see if any more big names drop out. Ashleigh Barty, Madison Keys, Karolina Pliskova and Serena Williams are among those in action, and I'm really hoping we get to see Serena Williams vs Karolina Muchova in round three. The rapidly improving big-serving Czech, Muchova, could well give Williams a tougher test than many anticipate.

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Dan's US Open P&L:-

5 Matches
3 Wins
5 Units Staked
7.95 Units Returned
59% ROI

Dan Weston,

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