US Open Tips: One last upset?

US Open Betting RSS / / 12 September 2011 / Leave a Comment

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Nadal enjoys the moment as he defeats Murray - can he turn the tables on Djokovic?

Nadal enjoys the moment as he defeats Murray - can he turn the tables on Djokovic?

"All the recent stats point to a Djokovic win, such as the five consecutive wins on all surfaces that the Serb has over Rafa, but rivalries such as these are rarely played out as per the form book."

Rafa Nadal has one last shot at Novak Djokovic in a 2011 Grand Slam when the pair meet in the US Open final tonight, but can he deny Nole? Sean Calvert believes in the Spaniard

I said yesterday that the US Open Women's Final would be a comfortable straight sets affair, but I'm not sure that anyone - even Sam Stosur - thought that it would be the Aussie that would prevail by such a margin.

Unfortunately for Stosur, the final will probably be remembered more for another bizarre collection of tirades at the umpire from Williams rather than the Aussie's great play.

From a betting perspective, that was one of the biggest shocks of recent times, but it is WTA, which as we all know can be like betting on the toss of a coin at times.

On to the men's final then, which yet again has been forced onto the Monday once more and Novak Djokovic and Rafa Nadal will take to the court (weather permitting) at 21:00 UK time.

Regular readers of this column will know that my outright tournament bet is on Nadal, so I do have a vested interest in the final and those in a similar position will be considering locking in some profit by laying the Spaniard at the current [2.5] ahead of the final.

But I won't be laying much of my bet off because as Stosur showed, anything can happen in a championship match and there could be value with sticking with the outsider tonight.

All the recent stats point to a Djokovic win, such as the five consecutive wins on all surfaces that the Serb has over Rafa, but rivalries such as these are rarely played out as per the form book.

The slower courts will be to Rafa's advantage here, as will the fact that he had a quicker and much less emotionally and physically draining semi-final on Saturday night than the epic clash between Djokovic and Federer that took almost four hours.

Nole showed signs of tiredness in the opening two sets, when he was barely recognisable as the player who has swept all before him in 2011 and as has happened to Nadal in New York before, a long season looks to be catching up with him.

Djoker's success against Nadal has come largely by exposing the Spaniard's weaker backhand side, but his own backhand down the line went AWOL against Federer when he seemed reluctant to hit it.

If that weapon is missing from his armoury again today, that will be a problem for the Serb.

Rafa will be well aware that he has to change things up in order to take this opponent out of the groove that he's found against him lately, so we might see the Spaniard coming to net more and of course he'd love to dictate with that forehand as he did here 12 months ago.

All things being equal, the 2011 best version of Djokovic will most likely win this match in four or maybe even three sets, but this US Open has been nothing if not unpredictable, which makes a Djokovic win far from certain.

The big factor in Djokovic's favour is the seemingly unshakeable belief that he possesses at the moment, as was highlighted again when match points down against Federer in the semi final.

I don't think there's much point in backing Novak at the current [1.66] though, because I think that if the Serb is going to win this, he'll win it with a little bit to spare, so the [2.06] about him prevailing on the handicap minus 3.5 games looks the best option if you want to be backing the world number one today.

To sum up, I think that fatigue will play a big part in this and Rafa can take advantage and win this one to reward outright backers at the initial [5.7], in what will hopefully be a great finale to the 2011 US Open.

Recommended Bet
Back Nadal at [2.5]

Running total of all US Open bets so far + £82.06 (£10 stake/liability)

Follow Sean on Twitter @seancalvert1

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