US Open Women's Day Eight Tips : Vondrousova again under-rated by the market
We have four further last 16 ties on day eight of the women's singles event at the US Open, and back to take a look at the schedule is our tennis columnist, Dan Weston...
"In the last 12 months, on hard court, Vondrousova has a slight edge on serve, winning 56.7% of points compared to Tsurenko's 55.6%, but Tsurenko has a little bigger edge on return, winning 42.2% of points compared to Vondrousova's 37.4%."
Pliskova gives us second consecutive underdog winner
Sunday night's matches gave us another underdog winner, as we followed up Marketa Vondrousova's win on Saturday with Karolina Pliskova getting the better of Ash Barty in straight sets. The Czech now faces a big-serving clash with Serena Williams tomorrow night after Williams ousted Kaia Kanepi in three sets, in a match which perhaps was less close than the scoreline suggested.
In the other matches, there were wins for defending champion Sloane Stephens who saw off the threat of Elise Mertens, while our remaining outright selection, Elina Svitolina, was defeated in three sets in a topsy-turvy match with Anastasia Sevastova.
Vondrousova again value as an underdog
Moving on to today's fourth round meetings, there was just one player for whom my model identified value - Marketa Vondrousova, who faces Lesia Tsurenko. We have already profited on Vondrousova in the previous round, taking her at a huge [4.8] to defeat Kiki Bertens, and she looks under-rated again by the markets, against the Ukrainian, Tsurenko.
Tsurenko is the current [1.59] favourite on the Exchange, and I make the chances of each player much closer to even money. In the last 12 months, on hard court, Vondrousova has a slight edge on serve, winning 56.7% of points compared to Tsurenko's 55.6%, but Tsurenko has a little bigger edge on return, winning 42.2% of points compared to Vondrousova's 37.4%.
With this in mind, Tsurenko does deserve to be a favourite, but not nearly to the extent that the market has the two players currently and Vondrousova at [2.66] is today's recommendation.
Sharapova unlikely to be shocked by Suarez Navarro
In today's other women's singles matches, both Madison Keys and Maria Sharapova are priced around the [1.50] mark for their meetings with Dominika Cibulkova and Carla Suarez Navarro, respectively.
The former clash - Keys v Cibulkova - features a contrast between a serve-orientated Keys and the more return-focused Cibulkova, and the price looks about right to me.
The price in the latter match-up - Sharapova against Suarez Navarro - again doesn't look hugely out of line, but of the two favourites here, I'd be keener to take Sharapova. While the Russian isn't close to her previous best levels, before injuries and a ban, he should be too good for Suarez Navarro here, whose peak level isn't magnificent.
Promising Sabalenka en route to big things
Finally, two young players meet as Aryna Sabalenka faces Naomi Osaka, and the immensely promising Sabalenka is the slight favourite to take this, at [1.71].
I make this about right as well, with the 20 year old from Belarus now having held in excess of 75% in the last 12 months on hard court, and if she can continue this progress, she'll be a top 10 player in no time at all - and possibly, in what is a very open women's game right now with no outstanding player - be ranked much better even than this.
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Dan's US Open 2018 P/L
P/L: + 3.66pts (21.53% return on investment)
Back Marketa Vondrousova at [2.66]