US Open Women's Singles Day Four: Tomljanovic and Vondrousova providing the value
Tonight's 16 matches at the US Open conclude the second round, and returning to discuss the value on today's card, is our tennis columnist, Dan Weston...
"Siniakova’s win over Kontaveit was just her third hard court win of the year, and she now stands 3-7 on the surface this year (by contrast, Tomljanovic is 13-7) and the hard court data is also in favour of the Australian - Tomljanovic as an underdog is also solid value based on my numbers."
Muguruza dumped out by Muchova on day three
Last night's day three action in New York saw defeat for our long-shot selection, Lucie Safarova, with the veteran unable to put enough pressure on Ash Barty's first serve - the Australian won an impressive 86% of points on first serve in the match, and a break difference in both sets was enough for her. Barty's reward tomorrow in the third round is the unheralded Karolina Muchova after the 22 year old Czech stunned Garbine Muguruza with a comeback victory after dropping the first set.
In a tournament of few shocks so far, Muguruza's loss was up there with Simona Halep's against Kaia Kanepi on the opening day, although in fairness, it didn't have a huge impact on any particular player in the outright market. Our outright picks have both shortened significantly, though, and after victory last night, Elina Svitolina is now into the [15.0] fourth favourite for the event.
Vondrousova value even with market support
Moving on to tonight's matches, there isn't much value, although I have found several spots which I do like. For the first, Eugenie Bouchard faces Marketa Vondrousova, and it's a fascinating match-up.
Bouchard is the [1.76] market favourite, and I'm shocked by this line - even after a drift. Yes, she qualified impressively (albeit against low-level opposition) and this price suggests the market has her back at top 30 type level. Let's not forget that a fortnight ago, she lost to Nao Hinino in an ITF event in Vancouver, and the week before, was easily beaten by Elise Mertens in Montreal - there really is little in the way of evidence to suggest Bouchard has managed that dramatic career turnaround just yet.
The 19 year old Vondrousova is a player of high potential, but missing the end of last year, a poor 2018 grass season and some mediocre results in the big tournaments have hit her ranking somewhat, and she's much better than her current ranking, which stands just outside the top 100.
Certainly, she's exhibited much better hard court data than Bouchard over the last year or two, and I'm fine with recommending her as an underdog against the Canadian today.
Tomljanovic's improvement indicates value
The other match I want to discuss in a little detail is Katerina Siniakova against Ajla Tomljanovic, with the market looking like they have over-rated Siniakova after her surprise three-set win over Anett Kontaveit on Tuesday.
Siniakova is the marginal [1.98] favourite here, and I'm surprised by this line. After long-term injury, Tomljanovic has gone a long way through the difficult process towards getting her ranking back on track, and an assessment of her recent losses indicates that they pretty much have all come against players of a good level on that particular surface - certainly, there are no disasters in the last few months, and with the exception of a loss to Tamara Zidansek (a clay courter of high potential) in Bol in June, we have to go back to April for her last defeat as a favourite.
Siniakova with much to prove on hard court
Furthermore, Siniakova's win over Kontaveit was just her third hard court win of the year, and she now stands 3-7 on the surface this year (by contrast, Tomljanovic is 13-7) and the hard court metrics I use are also in favour of the Australian - Tomljanovic as an underdog is also solid value based on my numbers.
Kvitova looks short for Wang meeting
In other matches, I wouldn't be at all surprised if Taylor Townsend was able to push Jelena Ostapenko, who is the [1.39] favourite for their clash, while as with the last round, I feel that Petra Kvitova is a touch short at [1.12], although certainly it would take a considerable under performance for Yafan Wang to defeat her.
Other big names in action include Madison Keys, against Bernarda Pera, and Caroline Wozniacki, who faces Lesia Tsurenko. We also see our other outright selection, Caroline Garcia, take to the courts, and she's [1.52] to beat Olympic champion, Monica Puig.
Follow Dan on Twitter @TennisRatings
Back Marketa Vondrousova at [2.30]
Back Ajla Tomljanovic at [2.00]